155 
FXUS63 KABR 280817
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

An upper level trough over the central part of the country will dig 
southward today, with a gradual shift to the east tonight to become 
centered from the Great Lakes to Louisiana by Tuesday morning. The 
main energy on the leading edge of the trough is now south of the 
region, but a secondary wave will slide southward over 
Minnesota/eastern Dakotas today. This may bring some lower cloud 
cover and few light showers to the eastern part of the CWA. 
Northwest flow sets up behind the trough late tonight and will 
remain through the day Tuesday. 

At the surface, the region is between low pressure to the east and 
high pressure to the west this morning, with a fairly tight pressure 
gradient in place. Wind speeds already in the 10 to 20 mph range, 
and expect them to increase into the 20 to 30 mph range during the 
morning hours before diminishing some this afternoon as the high to 
the west begins to slide over the area. The high gets pushed south 
tonight as a frontal boundary associated with low pressure to the 
northeast approaches, then tracks across the area during the day 
Tuesday. With little in way of upper support, expect the front to 
move through dry, with breezy conditions again during the daytime 
hours. 

High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s east to the 
lower 60s west, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s. Westerly 
flow ahead of the approaching front on Tuesday will usher some 
warmer air in, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Tuesday 
afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Will start Wednesday with windy conditions thanks to 1/2km winds 
around 30kts, weak cold advection, and ample sunshine under an 
airmass featuring 850mb temperatures closing in on 0C across the 
northeast by the end of the day. Mixed winds top out around 35kts, 
so just a little shy of advisory level. Mixing overnight will 
probably keep temperatures from crashing Thursday morning, but with 
little if any wind, Friday morning still looks like the end of the 
growing season for our area. The high pressure makes a very slow 
progression east while weakening, with a weak pressure pattern and 
not a lot of model continuity for the weekend/start of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will become gusty again out of the northwest on Monday. VFR 
conditions tonight may give way to low VFR/MVFR cigs across the east 
Monday morning, affecting KATY and, possibly, KABR before clearing 
in the afternoon.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin