771 FXUS64 KHGX 280437 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1137 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 .SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]... [Admin Note: The NWS will be performing major network maintenance tonight between 1am and 4am CDT that will cause data outage for many of our products. During this time, many of our products will not be transmitted to external users and web based services may also become unavailable. Because of this planned outage, the overnight forecast package was put together a bit earlier than usual. If there were any major changes to the forecast, expect those to occur after 4am.] The end of summer is just a few hours away! The much anticipated cold front is currently moving through the DFW area. The line of showers and thunderstorms associated with this front will move through the northern part of the region, including College Station, around 7 to 8z. The FROPA will quickly progress southward with the City of Houston getting in on the activity at around 12z, and then it quickly gets to the coast a couple hours after that. There is not a whole lot of moisture available for this front, so anticipating mainly showers with some isolated thunderstorms embedded within the line. The drastically lower dew points (down into the 40s to 50s compared to the 60s to 80s we've been dealing with the past few months) will lag behind the showers/wind shift by a few hours as the 850mb front pushes through. It won't just be a line of showers and lower dew points that this front will bring, but also gusty winds up to 20 to 30 mph. These winds will develop in the late morning and only continue to get stronger through the afternoon as strong 925mb winds (30 to 40kts) mix down to the surface. Won't issue it with this package, but there will be borderline Wind Advisory criteria (sustained winds greater than 25mph) developing along the Barrier Islands and coastal areas this afternoon. Daytime temperatures will only climb into the mid to upper 70s on Monday for much of the region (right along the coast may get into the low 80s). Low dew points and clearing skies will allow for temperatures to really take a plunge Monday night into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s along the coast, mid to upper 50s along I-10, and even down into the low 50s across the northern tier of counties. Fowler .LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]... With the cold front passed and out of the area, FALL WEATHER! At least it will be a great for real taste of Fall. High pressure moves in behind the front and fair weather prevails. Until midweek, winds will stay northerly and temperatures mild. Dew points decrease with the drier air keeping the humidity down. Around Wednesday, winds lightly shift back out of the south and bring moist air back in the area. By Friday, we get more of an onshore flow set up with winds in the evening shifting more easterly along the coast and by the end of the weekend, winds become more southerly across the CWA. Temperatures do not get effected by this, highs remain in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the low 60s. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear through the rest of the forecast period. 35 && .AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours, but a cold front dropping down from the north will bring not only bring a chance of showers, but will also usher in strong northerly winds. While the front passes through, expect CIGs to drop to 1500 to 2000 ft and these CIGs to linger for a few hours after the frontal passage. Looks like the frontal passage will push through CLL around 7-8z, through IAH around 11-12z, then through GLS and off the coast by 14-16z. The line of showers and thunderstorms will be the strongest when it enters from the north and weakens as it pushes through the area. Because of this, have added a -TSRA TEMPO for a couple hours around 8z for CLL and UTS, but have kept all other sites as VCSH. Gusty northerly winds will continue through the day behind the front with gusts up to 20 to 30mph with the strongest gusts near the shore. Expect clearing skies through the day as well. Winds relax a bit overnight tomorrow night, but may still be sustained around 10 to 15 mph. Important information for our users, the NWS will be completing some maintenance on our internal network between 1am and 4am CDT. This will result in a data outage of many of our products and many products will not be transmitted to external users. Because of this, all of our TAF sites will include "AMD NOT SKED 2806/2809" in this package. Unfortunately, this will be when the cold front will be approaching through CLL and UTS, so please be advised that amendments may not be issued if conditions become unrepresentative. Fowler && .MARINE... Onshore winds will prevail tonight as a cool front approaches the area. By Monday morning, the inactive frontal boundary will be in the coastal waters and causing higher winds. A Small Craft Advisory is set for the bays, coastal waters, and outer coastal waters from 7am Monday until 7am Tuesday. After that, from 7am until 1pm, Tuesday, The Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the outer and coastal waters. Further analysis will be needed to determine if the outer coastal waters will need a Small Craft Advisory until Tuesday evening. Seas will build through tomorrow night and look to peak around 10ft and start to subside Tuesday morning. With the inactive system, not much active weather is expected but with the SST in the low 80s and , By Wednesday morning, seas will be back to 1-3ft in the coastal waters. This will hold until the weekend when a weaker back door front moves in the area, building seas to around 5ft with winds veering southeasterly to more of an onshore flow set up. Note - The Coastal Waters Forecast for 430AM may be delayed due to routine maintenance and system updates. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 76 52 78 52 / 50 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 77 59 79 56 / 30 40 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 81 66 80 66 / 10 40 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$