255 FXUS61 KBTV 201420 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure remains over the region through early Thursday. Expect plenty of sunshine and dry weather today, but high temperatures will still be several degrees below normal. Frost and freeze conditions will develop once again tonight, but a gradual warming trend will begin on Monday and continue right through mid week. High temperatures will return to seasonal normals by midweek with dry weather and a good deal of sunshine continuing across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape and no big changes needed at this time. Clouds over the region early this morning have decreased in areal coverage and or have moved south of the area. Should see a few shallow cumulus forming over the higher terrain today, but overall there will be a good deal of sunshine today with highs a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday and slightly less wind. Going forecast has all this covered well with only tweaks being to temperatures and dew points to match current conditions. Previous Discussion... Some mid level clouds drifted over the area overnight, but are thinning out now. Still expect skies to become mostly sunny today. Only some isolated fog formed overnight and is now lifting as well. Have allowed the frost advisory to expire as temperatures will continue to rise this morning. Temperatures this afternoon should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly 50s to around 60. Previous discussion follows. Surface high pressure remains anchored over the north country for the entirety of the near term portion of the forecast for today through tomorrow. Mainly sunny skies today, but temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to around 60. Will have another cold night with good radiational cooling conditions and temperatures will drop to near freezing once again. Will see frost/freeze conditions once again. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Monday as upper level ridge moves into the region from the west. Winds will be pretty light through the period. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 238 AM EDT Sunday...One more night with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal is expected across the North Country Monday night as a 1032 mb high remains anchored across the region. This surface high will weaken throughout the day on Tuesday as Hurricane Teddy passes well to the east of benchmark. We should pick up some gradient winds in response to a tightening pressure gradient but it appears we will see winds only in the 10 to 15 mph range given how far east the hurricane is expected to track. Temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees below normal but warmer than previous days with highs topping out into the mid to upper 60s across the region. Any winds that develop Tuesday should weaken Tuesday night as high pressure again tries to overspread the region from the west/southwest. Modest warm air advection will be seen in the mid to upper level Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night which will allow our overnight lows to bottom out right around our seasonal normals (lower 40s to lower 50s). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 238 AM EDT Sunday...The warming trend seen on Tuesday will continue into Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon high temperatures warming into the mid 60s to mid 70s both days. Overnight lows will remain fairly mild given increasing cloud cover and continued weak warm air advection in the mid-levels. A weak cold frontal boundary will sink south across the North Country Thursday night into Friday with a chance for some scattered showers. The dynamics for this system look rather unimpressive with mid level height rises likely to cap much of the environment. Any lingering shower activity associated with the front will exit eastward prior to sunrise on Saturday with slightly cooler weather expected over the weekend. Given the latest cold air intrusions, there is a lack of colder air over the arctic. Until the cold air has time to develop over the arctic, any cold front that pushes through will bring cooler weather but not to the degree observed this past week. In regards to smoke, we could see some smoke around 7,000 to 10,000 ft as the flow aloft becomes more zonal on Thursday with the continued wildfire activity out west. As it appears now, none of this smoke is expected to make it down to the surface or impact air quality. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...All terminals have improved to VFR at this time. MPV was down for a few ours overnight with some isolated BR development there. VFR conditions are expected for the 24 hour TAF period. Skies will become mostly clear as the day wears on. Winds are calm to light this morning, will trend north to northwesterly 4-8 kts after 14Z today. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Neiles