418 FXUS64 KBRO 192349 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 649 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and moderate north winds prevail across deep south Texas early this evening. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with drier air in place. A few passing mid to high level clouds will possible at times as Tropical Storm Beta moves closer to the Middle Texas coast. Lighter winds this evening will become moderate with some gusts near 20 knots are expected by late tonight into Sunday, especially at BRO and HRL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/ ..Tropical Storm Beta moving little this afternoon over the northwest Gulf of Mexico... SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Less humid and warm conditions prevail across the region this afternoon as Deep south Texas remains on the western periphery of Tropical Storm Beta. Satellite imagery and surface observations show some fair weather cumulus moving north to south across the area this afternoon courtesy of the large circulation from the tropical cyclone. Brownsville radar currently indicates some activity in the offshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected inland for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. The short-term forecast will continue be highly dependent on the forecast track of Tropical Storm Beta which is located about 310 miles east of Brownsville. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Beta slowly moving west to west-northwest towards the middle Texas coast through the period. Please refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Storm Beta. The latest model guidance continues to keep most of the rainfall offshore tonight and into most of Sunday. Rain chances increase slightly across the northern portions of the CWA and near the coast as Beta lollygags towards the middle Texas coast Sunday night. The most significant changes in the short term was lowering PoPs/QPF values across the CWA and canceling the Storm Surge Watch, previously in effect for Kenedy County, due to the current NHC forecast track of Beta. The main impacts for Deep South Texas will be minor coastal flooding along the coast, very hazardous surf zone and beach conditions at South Padre Island and Boca Chica beaches. Some rain bands from the tropical storm may produce moderate to heavy rainfall at times, especially along the coast, and may lead to minor flooding. Breezy to strong winds, mainly along the coast, are expected on Sunday as the pressure gradient strenghtens. In addition, based on the latest NHC forecast, tropical storm force winds will reach the lower Texas coast Sunday night and move inland across the coastal sections of the CWA. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Tropical Storm Beta will be moving slowly towards the middle Texas coast Monday. Low to mid level moisture is expected to wrap around on the relatively dry side of the storm and this should provide a good chance of rain across the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Monday as the outer rainbands from Beta move across the coastal bend into the northern ranchlands. Beta is expected to make landfall along the middle to upper Texas coast Tuesday and low to mid level moisture will diminish from south to north Tues afternoon as a result. Will mention a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern portions of deep south Texas Tuesday with a slight chance across the Rio Grande Valley. Some moisture will linger across the area Wednesday as Beta slowly moves northeast along the upper Texas coast Wednesday. Will mention isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of the northern ranchlands Wednesday. The rest of the long term forecast is highly dependent on the future track of Beta but low to mid level moisture will continue to diminish across southwest Texas as a 500mb shortwave trough is progged to develop across east Texas Wed night into Thursday and a 500mb low possibly cuts off across south Texas Friday. This would provide additional subsidence across southwest Texas through the rest of the week into the weekend. Will continue to mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area through Friday. MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): Buoy 42002 reported winds of 21 knots gusting to around 29 knots with seas near 16 feet and Buoy 42019 reported winds of 23 knots gusting to 30 knots with seas near 10 feet this afternoon. Moderate to strong north winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight as Tropical Storm Beta slowly moves west across the western Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm conditions will be possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across the lower Texas Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Hazardous marine conditions will persist along the Lower Texas coast through the period as Tropical Storm Beta moves towards the Middle Texas coast. Monday through Thursday...Very strong northwest winds will prevail across the coastal waters Monday with Tropical Storm Beta approaching the Texas coastline Mon afternoon per the latest NHC forecast. Winds should back to the west and diminish across the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday as the storm is expected somewhere along the middle to upper Texas coast Tues afternoon. Seas will remain elevated across the offshore waters Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains relatively strong across the lower Texas coast as Beta slowly moves northeast along the upper Texas coast Wed afternoon. Moderate west to northwest winds across the coastal waters Wednesday will diminish Wed night into Thursday. Light to moderate north to northwest winds should prevail across the lower Texas coast Thursday with high pressure building into the area in the wake of Beta. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 84 71 86 / 20 40 30 30 BROWNSVILLE 71 85 71 87 / 20 30 20 20 HARLINGEN 69 85 70 86 / 10 30 30 30 MCALLEN 69 86 71 86 / 10 30 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 89 69 87 / 10 20 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 83 / 30 40 40 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ251-256-257-351. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ256-257-351. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for TXZ256-257-351. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ256-257-351. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ256-257-351. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 63-KC