775 
FXUS63 KFSD 192330 AAA
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
630 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Smoke aloft will continue to bring hazy skies to our area into 
Sunday. With high pressure to our east and a surface trough 
approaching from the west, it will remain breezy tonight with a 
decent gradient across the region. This will contribute to a mild 
night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The surface trough and upper level shortwave will push through the 
region on Sunday. Rain chances appear to be pretty meager with the 
system as moisture is mainly confined to the mid levels, but did 
include some sprinkles in the forecast. With the gradient and mixed 
layer winds of around 30 kts, it will be another breezy day, though 
the winds will taper off from the west in the afternoon as the 
trough comes through. It will be another warm day with highs mainly 
in the lower to mid 80s. Models indicate the smoke aloft decreasing 
in the afternoon as midlevel winds increase.

In spite of the warm temperatures, gusty winds, and dry conditions, 
think that fire weather concerns will remain in check - although 
still elevated - as afternoon relative humidity values will run in 
the upper 30s to mid 40s, and as stated above, winds will be 
diminishing in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

There will not be a lot of change for next week with upper level 
ridging dominating through the period. This will bring a 
continuation of above normal temperatures with highs primarily in 
the 80s. There will be a brief break midweek as upper level energy 
tracks across the Northern Plains around Wednesday, dragging some 
slightly cooler air into the region for Thursday. As far as 
precipitation chances, other than a small chance on Wednesday with 
the passage of the trough, it appears to be dry through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

VFR conditions and gusty south/southeasterly winds will prevail 
through the period. Cirrus stream overhead this evening, coupled 
with a layer of mid level smoke from western wildfires. Expect
winds to weaken a bit overnight, but low level wind shear will
develop from around 02-15z across the region as a 40-50 kt low 
level jet develops. Gusts will strengthen again Sunday morning,
mainly along and east of I-29, with gusts peaking 20-35 kts.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BP