955 FXUS61 KCAR 191928 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 328 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool Canadian high pressure will build over the region through Sunday and will remain overhead to start the week Monday. Hurricane Teddy will then make it/s closest approach to the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night with increasing winds...swell...and the potential for rainfall along the Downeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ample cloudiness on this cool afternoon particularly for northern areas given moisture beneath very dry mid levels and ahead of a potent /albeit moisture-starved/ shortwave pinwheeling south and east through Quebec. Expect clouds to gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Coldest airmass of the season thus far settling overhead tonight with high pressure centered north of northern New York and T8s falling below 0...nearing 10C below the climatological norm. This sets up a good frost/freeze scenario with perhaps some light residual northerly flow keeping conditions just a touch warmer than possible. However, a widespread frost/freeze is expected and in coordination with GYX have issued headlines accordingly. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Very quiet weather period as the aforementioned high pressure directly overhead with some upper level cloudiness possible as sharpening mid level shortwave dives south and east across the region atop the surface high. Temperatures aloft change little and thus don/t foresee much difference in afternoon highs from today with readings in the mid 50s for most for most of the forecast area with highs a bit warmer /low 60s/ for the downeast coast. While another chilly night is likely Sunday night under clear skies and light northerly winds...the airmass aloft will not support temps quite as cold as the night previous. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High Impact Weather Potential: Variety of potential impacts surrounding the approach of Hurricane Teddy. Beyond this, no additional significant weather impacts are expected. Pattern: Trough along the east coast will cutoff...first steering Hurricane Teddy northward...and then nudging it somewhat west before strengthening westerlies over Canada push the circulation to the east with strengthening westerlies over North America for the remainder of the week with flow from the Pacific dominating across much of the United States favoring temperatures moving above normal over the northeast. After another dry and somewhat warmer day Monday under high pressure, all eyes turn to the progress of Hurricane Teddy which will make it/s closest approach to the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. A well offshore solution is well-agreed upon in the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite with the EC ensemble just a bit west of the Canadian Ensemble...with the GEFS further south and east with the closest approach. These differences in outcomes are important...however with the potential for tropical storm force winds to reach at least the marine waters. Far less likely that this scenario would favor winds of this strength over land...but will continue to monitor the complex interaction of Teddy with the developing cutoff circulation to it/s west. This type of scenario is notoriously difficult for numerical models to handle and thus confidence is only moderate despite the ensemble agreement. As far as potential impacts...certainly will see a significant increase in swell with the potential for minor coastal flooding / splashover / beach erosion. As mentioned by the previous shift...in locations where rain does not fall, the dry conditions and increasing northerly winds will favor an increased fire risk. Certainly not expecting enough rain for a hydro risk and...as mentioned above the threat from strong winds, with the greatest potential threat being over coastal Washington County. Beyond any impact from Teddy...quiet weather returns for Wednesday as the flow aloft looks to become increasingly progressive with temperatures moving above seasonal norms for the second half of the week with another moisture-starved cold front arriving by the end of the week with a return to seasonable temperatures next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term: VFR through Sunday night with localized fog possible each night...especially near inland lakes. Long Term: VFR Monday. While the center of Hurricane Teddy looks to remain well east of the region...peripheral impacts including gusty northerly winds /Tue-Tue night/ and the potential for MVFR restrictions in showers /Tue afternoon-eve/ particularly close to the New Brunswick border. Returning to VFR Wednesday/Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term: Northerly winds strengthen late tonight necessitating renewed SCAs for the offshore waters. Long Term: The focus will be on Teddy which will make its closest approach to the waters on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Waves will continue to gradually build through this period with the potential for winds/wind gusts to near tropical storm force. The primary window for strong winds would begin around daybreak Tuesday and continue through midnight Tuesday night before gradually decreasing. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ016-017-029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...CB/ARNOTT Short Term...ARNOTT Long Term...ARNOTT Aviation...CB/ARNOTT Marine...CB/ARNOTT