568 
FXUS63 KABR 191520 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1020 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Mild, hazy, dry and breezy conditions are expected through the short 
term, but a few showers/storms can't be ruled out on Sunday. 

An upper-level ridge will be squarely atop the region today, while 
an upper-level trough advances eastward from the Rockies. Southerly 
winds throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere will be 
advecting warmer air northward, and sfc winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph 
possible) will also transport some higher moisture-content air with 
dewpoints in the 50s. This should help preclude the need for any 
fire weather headlines, but fire danger will be elevated 
particularly west of the Missouri River. High temperatures will be 
in the 70s for most, though mid 80s are possible across south 
central SD. The HRRR and RAP continue to plaster the area with 
lofted smoke, which will likely keep temps a bit cooler than they 
would have been otherwise. 

The trough enters the High Plains Sunday. A cold front may 
trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA during 
the morning and afternoon hours. Dry low levels may lead to virga 
and promote gusty winds as this activity moves through. Otherwise,
another day of above average temperatures and southerly (turning 
westerly behind the front) wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph (locally 
higher across the Coteau) thanks to a relatively tight pressure 
gradient. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to low 
80s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

A somewhat progressive mid-level flow pattern is still expected 
across the forecast area for the long term. Upper ridging will exist 
over the Northern Plains early in the period. However, energy 
pushing through the northern Rockies should move into the Plains by 
Wednesday. As a sfc front moves through on Wednesday, there is only 
just a slight chance for convection as overall conditions look warm, 
dry and relatively capped. After this system moves by, upper ridging 
will re-assert itself over the area for the latter part of the work 
week, providing more warmth and dryness. Temperatures are expected 
to remain above normal over the period duration given progged 2m 
temps and ensemble temp anomalies.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through today regionwide. Elevated
smoke will also continue across the area. 

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK