072 FXUS63 KOAX 191124 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 624 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Today and Tomorrow: Primary forecast concern for the next couple of days will be strong southerly winds. An upper level trough currently located over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward pushing a shortwave ridge over the central CONUS. The ridge and southerly flow will lead to increased temperatures today and Sunday. The upper level trough will strengthen as it moves east leading to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient leading to stronger winds. Winds are expected to strengthen after sunrise today. Winds will be strongest in northeast Nebraska at around 15 to 20 mph and gusting up to 30 mph. In southeast Nebraska, winds will be lighter at 10 to 15 mph and gusting up to 20 mph. High temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The sky will still have that smokey haze that has persisted for the past few days. Short range models show this smoke lingering through Sunday. It does look like we may have a break from that haze beginning Monday due to a change in the upper level pattern. Though, the smoke could become blocked again depending on the path of Hurricane Teddy. Temperatures Sunday should be a couple of degrees warmer than today with most of the forecast area likely reaching 80 degrees or above. Winds will be stronger Sunday with 30 mph gust more widespread across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Winds will again be from the south and begin to strengthen after sunrise. Surface winds are expect to range from 20 to 25 mph and gust up to 35 mph. As mentioned above, the smokey haze will again be present, but should begin to thin out. Winds will diminish as the upper level trough moves north and east into Canada on Sunday. Some models do suggest some light rain Sunday night into Monday morning with that passing trough. But, the best conditions for rain should remain well north of the area. Monday through Friday: The extended range is expected to be warm and dry. Zonal flow with slight ridging should lead to above normal temperatures. As discussed above, the smoke over the area should begin to thin out on Monday. The smoke has been reducing temperatures by a few degrees so it's possible temperatures might be a bit higher than currently forecasted as we re-acclimate to less of a haze. High temperatures for the week are likely to be above 80 each day. There may be a slight cool down on Thursday as mid-range guidance suggests a weak shortwave moving across the Plains. Precipitation may be possible too, but confidence is too low to be definitive. Low temperatures for the week will be in the mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Southerly winds are the primary concern, increasing to 17-20 knots sustained by 14-16z, with gusts 25 to 30 knots possible through the afternoon. Speeds diminish slightly to 13-17 knots with gusts 20-24 knots by 23z. LLWS develops at KOFK by 03z with winds at 2000' 190 degrees around 45-50 knots. LLWS develops at KLNK by 06z, with KOMA just east of the stronger winds aloft. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fajman AVIATION...DeWald