870 FXUS64 KEWX 190946 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 446 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected for model rainfall amounts in the long term. .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... As Tropical Storm Beta continues to develop across the Western Gulf of Mexico an upper level ridge will build in today from the Southwest U.S. This ridge will bring with it a drier airmass for today which will translate to a nice Saturday across much of South Central Texas with highs in the low to mid 80s. Across the Coastal Plains and parts of the Rio Grande Plains temperatures will be slightly warmer in the upper 80s. North and northeast winds will be breezy at times today. Overnight lows tonight will drop to near or below seasonal normals with mid to upper 50s across the Hill Country to mid 60s across the Coastal Plains. Beta should drift northward during the day today in the weakness caused by the exiting trough that has brought South Central Texas the isolated showers and thunderstorms the last few days. By this evening into tomorrow the expanding ridge to the north should turn the storm to the west. The track of Beta in terms of how far north it moves, and how sharply it turns to the west will all depend on the strength of the upper ridge. In general though moisture returns to South Central Texas on Sunday morning with outer rain bands of Beta expected to begin impacting the area throughout the day on Sunday. Rain chances really began to ramp up Sunday afternoon with the best chances along and east of Interstate 35. Rainfall chances only increase from there into the long term portion of the forecast. With the cloudcover and rain around on Sunday, afternoon highs should only reach into the low 80s for most areas, the exception being the Rio Grande Plains where skies should remain partly cloudy. && .LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... What will Beta do? That is the question for the long term forecast. Currently the forecast track brings the storm toward the Middle Texas coast Sunday night and Monday and then turns to northeast Monday night keeping the center of the storm over the Gulf paralleling the coast. POPs will continue to increase Sunday night and spread farther west. High POPs will last through Tuesday. Models are in fairly good agreement on the chance for rain, they are not in good agreement on amounts. The ECMWF has around six inches in our southeastern counties while the GFS has near two. Of course the track of Beta will be the determining factor in how much rain we get. For now we will go with a compromise of one to three inches from Sunday through Tuesday for the eastern half of our CWA and a sharp decline to the west. As Beta moves up the coast Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances will decrease. As far as winds go, for now it looks like there will be a low chance for tropical storm force winds reaching Lavaca and DeWitt Counties, but our forecast will keep winds 30 mph and less with gusts up to around 40 mph. The strongest winds will be Tuesday afternoon as Beta approaches the coast and turns northeastward. Thursday there will only be a slight chance for showers over the eastern portion of our CWA and Friday will be dry everywhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 64 83 67 74 / 0 - 30 50 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 63 83 67 74 / 0 - 30 50 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 64 82 67 75 / 0 - 40 60 70 Burnet Muni Airport 82 59 80 65 72 / 0 - 20 40 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 63 89 66 84 / 0 0 - 20 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 60 83 66 74 / 0 - 20 50 70 Hondo Muni Airport 88 62 88 67 81 / 0 - 20 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 63 82 66 75 / 0 - 40 60 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 66 83 69 77 / 0 - 50 60 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 65 84 68 78 / 0 - 30 50 70 Stinson Muni Airport 87 66 84 69 79 / 0 10 40 50 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway Long-Term...05