387 FXUS64 KCRP 190359 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1059 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 .DISCUSSION... Latest aircraft measurements indicate that Tropical Storm Beta's max sustained winds has strengthened to near 60 mph. Tropical Storm Beta's track has slightly shifted to the north from the previous forecast. Beta is currently moving toward the north- northeast across the western Gulf with a slow westward motion expected to begin late Saturday. Beta is expected to reach hurricane status Sunday morning and continue to slowly approach the northwestern Gulf Coast. Due to the increase in winds, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coastal regions and over portions of the Gulf waters north of Port Aransas. South of Port Aransas, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. In addition, seas will also build to hazardous levels and tides are expected to run well above normal. For this, a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor with 2-4 feet inundation possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ DISCUSSION... Update for 00Z Aviation. AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist through the period. Rain chances will continue to diminish this evening with a slim chance for developed around LRD for the next hour or two. Otherwise, light northeasterly winds will continue tonight with winds picking up throughout the day tomorrow across ALI, CRP and VCT. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... This afternoon/evening should be similar to yesterday with an upper level trough remaining in the area and PWATs above 2 inches. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will form and move southwest through the area. A few storms could be strong. Drier air will move in later tonight as the trough drifts away from the area giving us a brief respite from the rain. Saturday should be fairly pleasant, with normal temperatures for mid-September, partly cloudy skies, and only a slight chance of showers over the Coastal Bend and over the waters. Cloud cover and the chances for precipitation will begin to creep back in Saturday night as moisture from Tropical Depression 22 pours into the area. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through Saturday morning as tide levels continue to run high with persistent, moderate to strong northeast flow. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued in response to the approach of TD22. Moderate coastal flooding will be possible with inundation values up to 2 to 4 feet MHHW. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... The NHC forecast of current Tropical Depression Twenty-Two (TD22) essentially controls the long-term forecast. The official track of the tropical cyclone (TC)is based on the expectation of an upper ridge over the SRN Plains/SERN CONUS, resulting in a westward movement of the TC Sunday/Monday toward the TX coast, followed by a developing quasi-zonal upper pattern, resulting in the northward movement of the TC Tuesday/Wednesday. Satellite-based PWAT values depict the copious moisture associated with the TC. The GFS predicts this moisture to advect onshore Sunday. Expect copious moisture to contribute to scattered/numerous convection Sunday. Expect rainbands associated with the TC to result in numerous/widespread precipitation Monday/Tuesday over the ERN CWA. Assuming the TC continues to move NWD, anticipate isolated/scattered convection over the CWA Wednesday-Friday. The track/scale of the TC, along with deterministic WaveWatch output, suggest an enhanced risk of rip currents/coastal flooding at least Sunday-Tuesday. MARINE... Moderate to strong north to northeast winds will continue through Saturday night. Wave heights will rapidly build as Tropical Depression 22 approaches the area, with seas reaching near 16 feet by late Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for both winds and hazardous seas through Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions may be possible beginning as early as Saturday night. The tropical cyclone is expected to maintain numerous/widespread showers, and isolated/scattered thunderstorms, during the Sunday- Tuesday period. A gradual decrease in the coverage/intensity of convection expected Wednesday-Friday. Wind forecast Sunday-Wednesday reflects the NHC forecast. Wave height forecast Sunday-Wednesday for the coastal waters primarily reflects Wavewatch output. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 88 69 80 71 / 10 20 60 60 80 Victoria 68 87 66 80 70 / 0 20 50 50 70 Laredo 69 88 66 83 69 / 20 0 20 20 50 Alice 69 88 67 83 69 / 10 20 50 50 70 Rockport 74 90 72 80 74 / 10 20 60 70 90 Cotulla 68 88 66 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 50 Kingsville 69 87 67 83 70 / 20 20 60 60 80 Navy Corpus 77 89 72 79 74 / 20 30 70 70 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands... Nueces Islands. Storm Surge Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Kleberg...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Refugio. GM...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ EMF/94...SHORT TERM