251 FXUS61 KGYX 190233 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1033 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight and Saturday, before cresting over New England on Sunday. Hurricane Teddy will remain well offshore Monday before passing east of our region and reaching Nova Scotia on Tuesday. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Previous discussion...At 18z...a 1033 millibar high was centered over the western Great Lakes. GOES imagery showed the back edge of the clouds extended from southern New Hampshire through coastal Maine. This band will continue to push offshore over the next few hours as drier air spills into the area on a northerly flow ahead of the building surface high. For tonight...mainly clear skies and diminishing wind with our dry airmass in place should allow temperatures to tumble over much of interior New Hampshire as well as portions of western interior Maine. Elsewhere...there should be enough wind to prevent much in the way of frost. Where I expect fairly wide coverage of frost or freezing temperatures overnight I've posted either a freeze warning or frost advisory. we'll see a wide range in lows tonight based on terrain and proximity to water bodies as well as where winds go calm. It should be noted that we'll see similar if not colder readings tomorrow night as the high center will be nearly overhead. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... After a chilly start to the weekend...temperatures will only recover to the 50s and lower 60s on Saturday under bright sunshine as colder air continues to arrive on a light northerly breeze. Tomorrow night will be as cold if not colder in many locations with the high center nearby and light winds and clear skies expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in relatively good agreement today. A relatively weak but important upper level trough will cross south of our region on Sunday leaving northern New England with another dry day. This trough exits off the coastline near Long Island New York Sunday night and Monday, cutting off and becoming negatively tilted with time. This system will draw hurricane Teddy poleward before the system retrogrades briefly in a north, northwesterly track on Tuesday. This track will allow for breezy northerly winds on Tuesday with some cloudiness and possibly a shower over easternmost portions of the forecast area. Thereafter, Teddy shifts east Tuesday night, weakening as it moves through the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure with continued dry conditions will be the rule for Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday night, an upper level disturbance may bring a shower to portions of the region by late at night and during the day Friday. However, most areas will remain very dry. Seasonably cool conditions will continue through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a moderating trend will begin with many areas climbing into the 70s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...Lcl IFR psb 08 - 12z Sat and again Sun in valley stratus and fog vcnty of KLEB and KHIE. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions, however there will may localized IFR conditions in patchy ground fog late Sunday night. Gusty winds may develop Tuesday and Tuesday night around the periphery of departing Hurricane Teddy. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...The gusty breeze will produce some marginal SCA winds and seas across the outer waters into the day on Saturday. Long Term...Seas will begin to build Sunday night in response to the poleward motion of Teddy. Seas will likely peak on Tuesday as the storm approaches the Nova Scotia coastline. before gradually subsiding thereafter. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We'll continue to have high astronomical tides through early next week. Tides are currently running near projections which brings us about 0.5 ft below flood stage for the 1240 AM high tide tonight. However...the observed 3 to 4 ft long period swell from Casco Bay southward along the coast has the potential to produce a bit of splash-over around the time of high tide. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ013-014-018>020- 033. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ007-008-012. NH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ005>009-011-015. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ003-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro