139 FXUS65 KBYZ 181539 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 939 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2020 .UPDATE... Satellite imagery shows strong ridge axis over central MT with a deep low along the Pacific coast. As the ridge axis moves slowly east, we will begin to see an increase in high clouds from the west today and tonight...and today will be a bit warmer than Thursday. Low level winds will remain easterly for another day and this will keep smoke and limited mixing in place. Chance of showers and in all likelihood improved air quality arrive Saturday. All of this is covered well in the forecast. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday night... Smoke aloft and off-and-on weak easterly flow will keep temperatures a bit under guidance again today, but highs will be a bit warmer than the past couple days and reach the low 80s. Otherwise, fairly tranquil weather throughout the day. Tonight, a negatively-tilted trough starts to swing through Montana with good dynamic forcing associated with it to bring some light to moderate showers throughout Sunday. However, moisture stays well north of south-central and SE Montana, and only the foothills and mountains are expected to see any significant amounts (though likely staying under a quarter inch of rain). A cold front will pass through the area during Saturday afternoon, and both pre-frontal and post-frontal winds look to gust up to 30 mph, though locally higher amounts are possible at areas along the Wyoming border and in Sheridan County, which is the main reason for the Fire Weather Watch in that county. Temperatures will again climb to the low to mid 80s. Vertz Sunday through Thursday... Quiet weather pattern for the extended. Saturday system pushes northeast of the area Sunday, taking precipitation chances with it. Zonal flow aloft builds in behind the departing system bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures (75-85deg) through the week. This warm dry pattern will keep fire concerns in place. Chambers && .AVIATION... Smoke from west coast wildfires will continue to reduce slant range visibility. Improvement is expected Saturday. Smoke will reduce surface visibility along the mountains and foothills (i.e. KLVM/SHR), where flight conditions will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 081 057/080 052/074 046/079 049/082 049/079 052/085 0/K 03/T 40/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U LVM 084 051/073 044/071 040/079 044/081 042/081 046/084 0/K 17/T 61/N 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U HDN 083 052/086 050/075 044/080 046/083 047/080 048/085 0/K 02/T 51/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U MLS 081 053/088 053/075 048/079 048/083 049/079 049/085 0/H 01/H 61/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 083 051/090 052/076 046/081 048/085 051/080 049/085 0/H 01/H 40/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U BHK 078 049/082 051/074 048/078 047/082 048/077 047/081 0/H 01/N 41/U 10/U 00/U 10/U 00/U SHR 084 053/088 044/076 042/081 046/084 046/080 047/085 0/K 03/T 40/U 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening FOR ZONES 274-284. && $$ weather.gov/billings