635 
FXUS63 KTOP 150402
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

As of 20Z Monday afternoon, an outstanding early-fall afternoon 
was unfolding across the region. The only item of interest was 
smoke from the western US fires filtering-out sunshine across 
portions of the region. Otherwise, temperatures will rise another 
degree or two and reach the upper 70s to near 80 this afternoon. 

The surface ridge axis, which was contributing to the very nice 
day today, will remain across the region tonight. As a result, 
patchy fog, some dense, will be probable across the area.
Overnight lows look to reach the middle 50s. 

Another mild and quiet day is anticipated for Tuesday with highs
reaching the lower 80s. Winds will veer to the south by afternoon
as the aforementioned surface ridge axis progresses eastward.
Speeds will remain less than 15 MPH however. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

The quiet stretch of weather looks to continue into the extended
period, as the remnants of Hurricane Sally look to remain well-
southeast of the forecast area. A shortwave midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the region through the weekend as a midlevel
trough ejects across the northern Rockies. As the shortwave trough
traverses the northern Plains early next week, rain chances may
increase across our region. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain
near-normal with highs in the 70s and 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) 
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Not much change in forecast thinking and with ground fog already
developing in the KS river valley, will use last night's obs as a
template for tonight at TOP. Unfortunately that means VSBY
bouncing in and out of LIFR. Once the fog mixes out after sunrise,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Wolters