465 FXUS63 KIND 140458 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1258 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 High pressure will build over the next few days as the front that moved through the area last night continues to slowly move to the east. Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday before small chances for rain move in as tropical remnants approach from the south. After that system exits by late Thursday, dry weather will return through the weekend with cooler than normal temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Soundsings and RH time sections showing a very dry column even in the boundary layer tonight and light north and northeast winds suggest fog and stratus will not be an issue overnight and early morning. Temperatures look on track with overnight lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Dry conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure slowly moves to the east across the Great Lakes Region. With mostly clear skies and a dry airmass, lows in the 40s seem possible tomorrow night, especially in the northeast where dew points are expected to be lowest. Tropical remnants from Sally will approach the area Wednesday into Thursday, but with the high pressure over the area, current thoughts are the remnants will turn east before reaching Indiana which will keep the area dry. Cloud cover from the system should reach the area by Wednesday which will help keep things slightly cooler than previous days. Southerly flow ahead of the system will bring dew points back into the mid 60s. Highs will rise into the upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will fall low to mid 60s through Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A rather dry forecast is expected throughout the long term as central Indiana is influenced by a stagnant surface high positioned over the Appalachia region. A surface ridge will develop associated with the previously mentioned high pressure, blocking the progression of gulf moisture over northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Ensembles members are fairly consistent with the placement of this high, leading to higher confidence in dry weather for the end of the week. On Thursday, confidence is less with the possible impact from the remnants of tropical storm Sally. Eastward progression of the high would allow for some frontogenetical development, providing a source of lift for possible precipitation. With this in mind, chance PoPs have been included in the forecast for Thursday, but confidence is low. Central Indiana also looks to be within a cooler regime underneath northerly low level flow. This will cause high temperatures to be near seasonal, with a few days cooler than normal. Drier air within this northerly flow will also decrease dew point temperatures, creating a more autumn like atmosphere. Overnight lows may approach the 40s, in the presence of mostly clear skies and a more efficient diurnal cooling environment. Due to this cooling, fog is possible throughout the long term, although confidence at this point is not high enough to include in the forecast. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 14/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1144 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 VFR most likely throughout the period. Hourly deterministic and probabilistic guidance continues to show only very low probabilities of any restrictions to visibility or ceiling late tonight into daybreak Monday. NAM soundings are an outlier - far more aggressive than other forecast profiles on low level saturation. The NAM soundings often overforecast this, and even its own MOS output has backed away from restrictions. Cannot totally rule out a brief drop to MVFR near daybreak, perhaps in the form of some patchy light fog anywhere where winds can stay calm for an extended period of time, but confidence is not high enough for explicit inclusion, and impacts would mostly be limited to general aviation. Winds through the period will be less than 10KT. Expect primarily a small amount of passing high cloud through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...White NEAR TERM...MK SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM...Updike AVIATION...Nield