685 FXUS64 KFWD 140103 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 716 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ Although a weak cold front was moving through the region this late this afternoon, the drier airmass was being quickly modified by moisture wrapping around Tropical Storm Sally. A few shower and thunderstorms will linger through sunset across the southeast zones where the moisture is the deepest. These isolated storms will remain below severe limits but will produce brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning. All storms will dissipate with the loss of surface heating. The remainder of the evening into the overnight hours will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with mainly high clouds. Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the southeast. Moisture will continue to deepen over the region Monday as Sally approaches the coast of Louisiana. Therefore, Monday will be more cloudy and humid than today which will keep high temperatures mainly in the 80s. The increase in moisture will also allow for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southeast zones. Brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard with any storm. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020/ /Monday Night Onward/ The remainder of the upcoming week will feature daily chances for scattered showers and storms with temperatures generally near normal. This will be due to a somewhat stagnant pattern for the first several days of the forecast until Tropical Storm (eventually Hurricane) Sally finally exits the picture towards the end of the week. In the meantime, its presence to our east will maintain east/northeast low-level flow while supplying much of East Texas with a favorable moisture fetch. However, the upper levels will be characterized by southwest flow aloft in the midst of a stalled diffuse trough over the Central US. Sally will eventually merge into this belt of modest southwesterlies and will be ushered off to the east by the end of the week. For those of us in North and Central Texas, the pattern outlined above will maintain daily rain chances within the CWA. The greatest chances will be across the east/southeast and will taper off farther to the northwest, essentially corresponding to where the greatest moisture content will be located throughout this time period. As one might infer from light northeasterly low-level flow and weak southwest flow aloft, shear will be minimal and unfavorable for the organization of strong or severe storms throughout the entire time period. Most activity should consist of single or multicell convection which will primarily be diurnally driven. Due to the isolated or scattered nature of this activity, PoPs will be low and broad brushed until greater detail can be added in the near-term. The greatest rain chances throughout the forecast period appear to be on Wednesday and Thursday when a secondary upper trough will dig southward into the Central/Southern Plains, sharpening the existing trough axis already in place. This would enhance large-scale ascent resulting in greater convective coverage both days. It could also allow for some convection to be maintained during the overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday. The upper trough and the remnants of Sally will both shift eastward by the end of the week while upper ridging returns. As a result, the upcoming weekend appears to mostly dry with temperatures running near normal. There is also a chance that a subtle backdoor front could nudge into the area over the weekend which could knock a couple degrees off both temperatures and dewpoints. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR at all TAF sites through Monday afternoon with a north wind in the 8 to 12 knot range along with some higher daytime gusts. Daytime Cu has dissipated around the region as of 00Z, leaving only scattered to broken high clouds. However, low level moisture will steadily increase tonight as Tropical Storm Sally approaches the Louisiana coast, resulting in the return of scattered to broken clouds around FL035. These clouds should arrive before sunrise and increase in coverage while slowly lifting once daytime heating begins. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday, mainly during the peak heating hours. The best chance for storm will be well to the southeast of the Metroplex TAF sites where large scale subsidence will be the weakest and moisture will be most abundant. However, a storm in the vicinity of Waco will not be out of the question Monday afternoon. $$ 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 86 70 87 70 / 0 10 5 10 5 Waco 70 88 71 89 70 / 5 20 5 10 5 Paris 67 84 67 85 69 / 0 10 0 10 5 Denton 65 85 69 86 68 / 0 5 5 10 5 McKinney 66 86 69 87 69 / 0 10 5 10 5 Dallas 68 87 71 88 71 / 0 10 5 10 5 Terrell 67 89 69 89 69 / 0 10 5 10 5 Corsicana 70 86 71 87 70 / 5 20 10 10 5 Temple 70 87 70 88 69 / 10 20 5 20 5 Mineral Wells 63 84 66 84 65 / 0 5 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 79/22