579 FXUS62 KMHX 131946 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 346 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Ridging inland will continue to weaken tonight. A cold front will cross the area late Monday followed by high pressure building in from the northwest through Thursday. Another cold front could approach the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM Sun...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area aided by diurnal heating. Some of the storms have been slow moving near the Crystal Coast and will produce a local flood risk with PW values above 2" due to back building and cell mergers. Storms should weaken rapidly early this evening with loss of heating with most areas remaining dry after late evening except for the immediate coast where proximity to a trough of low pressure offshore could result in some nocturnal shower activity late tonight. High pressure over the region will continue to weaken overnight with a very weak gradient at the surface. Winds will become calm and with very moist low levels, we expect fog and low clouds to develop after midnight as clouds higher based clouds decrease. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 345 PM Sun...Very moist air will remain across Eastern NC Monday. Widespread low clouds and patchy fog could take awhile to burn off in the morning due to the weak pressure gradient which will inhibit deep mixing due to light wind fields. Isolated showers will be possible along the coast in the morning, then a cold front will begin to move south through the area in the afternoon as the base of the mid level trough dips south across NC. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area with locally heavy rains the main threat. Highs will be mainly in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Sun... The cold front will cross the area Monday evening with shower activity ending by late evening. High pressure will then build in from the north behind it keeping settled and cooler weather through mid-week as Tropical Cyclone Paulette passes well offshore. The next cold front will draw tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, bringing rain chances back to the forecast late in the week into next weekend. Monday night...A reinforcing shot of fall-like weather will push through behind a cold front Monday night with high pressure building in its wake. Temps overnight will drop to the mid 60s inland with dew points down to a comfortable upper 50s/low 60s with upper 60s along the coast. Tuesday through Wednesday...Very cool and comfortable weather expected Tue through Wed with high pressure building in NW and dew points limited to the 60s. Highs both days will hover around 80 and overnight lows in the 60s inland and low-70s along the coast. Thursday through the weekend...Developing trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will begin to push high pressure offshore and begin to draw up tropical moisture from the remnants of Sally. Model timing and evolution differs on the exact outcome of this interaction, but we can expect rain chances to begin increasing around Thursday/Friday and continue through the early part of the weekend. High pressure slides off the Northeast coast as the next cold front approaches Friday, with deeper moisture returning. Look for unsettled weather Friday into the weekend with increasingly warm and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 345 PM Sun...A period of mostly VFR conditions will occur this evening, then after midnight the guidance is in good agreement that IFR conditions will develop in fog and low stratus. Sub VFR conditions will linger through much of Monday morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce occasional sub VFR conditions Mon afternoon and evening. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 330 AM Sun...Cold front moves through the area Monday night with sct evening showers and possibly a tstorm, bringing a few moments of sub-VFR cond. Drier air works in behind front Tue with VFR expected to prevail through Wed. Another cold front will begin approaching Thursday and draw up tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, increasing the chance for POPs and sub-VFR cond. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 345 AM Sun...Inland ridging gradually breaks down tonight, with the weaker gradient resulting in a gradual reduction of the N/NE winds 10-15 kt late today to light overnight as the inverted trough axis offshore slides further away from the coast. Mon afternoon moderate NE flow 15-20 kt develops as a cold front begins to move across the waters. Seas are the primary hazard for mariners through Mon as the mix of southeast long period swell and northeast windswell keeps seas at 4 to 7 ft through Mon morning then building Mon afternoon to 5-8 ft as the flow increases. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 330 AM Sun...NE winds will inc to 20-25 kts with gusts around 30 kts Mon night into early Tue as a cold front pushes through the region. Breezy NE flow will persist through Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient between a strong high over the Northeast and Hurricane Paulette passing well offshore. Winds gradually diminish to 10-15 kts by Wednesday and veer to the ESE by Thursday. Swell from Paulette begins to arrive Monday, with seas building in mainly long period swell through Tuesday, when they will peak around 8-11 ft. The swell will only gradually subside thorough the rest of the week as Paulette turns north the northeastward. SCAs will remain in effect for the coastal waters through duration of the hazardous seas caused by Paulette, which is currently expected to be through at least Wednesday or Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM Sun...Gusty NE winds will develop along the coast Mon night and Tuesday as strong high pressure builds in from the north. That, combined with increasing long period swell from distant Hurricane Paulette, will result in several threats along the coast. Wave guidance indicates 8-10 ft seas every 13-15 seconds. Though still a few days out, there is potential for coastal flooding, ocean overwash, and rough surf along the coast early to mid next week (especially north of Cape Lookout). Dangerous rip currents will also be likely all of next week. Please continue to monitor the threat closely over the next several days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...JME/ML MARINE...JME/ML TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX