567 FXUS62 KMHX 131137 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 737 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Ridging inland will gradually weaken today and tonight. A cold front will cross the area Monday followed by high pressure building in from the northwest through Thursday. Another cold front could approach the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Sun...No significant changes to the forecast with the sunrise update as radar indicates that light showers are occasionally working across the Outer Banks and stratus coverage extends across much of the area. Previous Forecast...Primary forecast challenge for today is the speed with which the inland ridge will break down as the parent high pushes east of the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance shows the ridge becoming significantly weaker by midday, but past experience indicates that the erosion of these wedge/CAD events can be more sluggish than guidance consensus, at least in cool season events, so tried to be cautious about clearing too early. Highs are highly dependent on the breakdown of the ridge, with mid-80s generally expected everywhere. However, a faster ridge erosion will bring highs into the upper 80s along the US Hwy 17 corridor, and a slower ridge erosion will keep highs limited to the lower 80s across the inner coastal plain. Expectation is that stratus will hang on into late morning, abating diurnal warming a couple hours slower than normal. By the afternoon, troughing along the coast will be the dominate surface feature with weak ridging aloft limiting precip chances today. Given the weakening surface gradient, modest moisture, and potential for 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to build across SE NC late afternoon, have continued to confine the potential for a few showers/storms to coastal areas near and south of New Bern. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 410 AM Sun...Weak troughing lingers along the coast, with scattered showers and storms focused offshore. Mainly dry conditions expected across the area by late evening given weak subsidence aloft. Decreasing cloud cover and light winds will allow for pockets of efficient radiation cooling, though with dew points 5-10 degrees higher than this morning, cooling will be limited, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM Sun...A cold front will cross the area Monday, with high pressure building in from the north behind it keeping settled and cooler weather through mid-week as Tropical Cyclone Paulette passes well offshore. The next cold front will draw tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, bringing rain chances back to the forecast late in the week into next weekend. Monday and Monday night...A reinforcing shot of fall-like weather will push through behind a cold front Monday into Monday night with high pressure building in its wake. A weak coastal trough ahead of the front Monday looks to provide sufficient moisture to initiate a few showers and possibly a tstorm as the front marches south during the afternoon. Temps will reach mid- 80s ahead of the FROPA during the afternoon and evening with dew points in the low 70s. Temps overnight will drop to the mid 60s inland with dew points down to a comfortable upper 50s/low 60s with upper 60s along the coast. Tuesday through Wednesday...Very cool and comfortable weather expected Tue through Wed with high pressure building in NW and dew points limited to the 60s. Highs both days will hover around 80 and overnight lows in the 60s inland and low-70s along the coast. Thursday through the weekend...Developing trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will begin to push high pressure offshore and begin to draw up tropical moisture from the remnants of Sally. Model timing and evolution differs on the exact outcome of this interaction, but we can expect rain chances to begin increasing around Thursday/Friday and continue through the early part of the weekend. High pressure slides off the Northeast coast as the next cold front approaches Friday, with deeper moisture returning. Look for unsettled weather Friday into the weekend with increasingly warm and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 730 AM Sun...Ceilings are the primary challenge through the rest of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Weak moisture advection is occurring over shallow ridging/CAD bringing widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings at sunrise. Guidance is notoriously over-aggressive with the erosion of these wedge- type inland ridges in the cool season, so if that trend holds true today then sub-VFR conditions could persist well into afternoon. Opted a bit closer to the guidance consensus as weak low pressure forming within the coastal trough should accompany the weakening of the inland ride this morning, and have ceilings improving to MVFR mid-morning and VFR prevailing at all terminals beginning early afternoon. VFR then continues through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Clearing skies and light winds late tonight could bring about enough radiational cooling to prompt some shallow fog formation mainly away from the immediate coast early Monday morning. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sun...Cold front moves through the area Monday into Monday night with sct showers and possibly a tstorm, bringing a few moments of sub-VFR cond. Drier air works in behind front Tue with VFR expected to prevail through Wed. Another cold front will begin approaching Thursday and draw up tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, increasing the chance for POPs and sub-VFR cond. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 415 AM Sun...Inland ridging gradually breaks down through the day, with the weaker gradient bringing a gradual reduction of the N/NE winds from moderate today to light tonight as the inverted trough axis slides further away from the coast. Seas are the primary hazard for mariners as the mix of southeast long period swell and northeast windswell keeps seas at 4 to 7 ft today and tonight. SCAs remain in effect for all nearshore coastal waters zones into midweek. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Sun...NE winds will inc to 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts during the day Monday as a cold front pushes through the region. Breezy NE flow will persist through Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient between a strong high over the Northeast and Hurricane Paulette passing well offshore. Winds gradually diminish to 10-15 kts by Wednesday and veer to the ESE by Thursday. Swell from Paulette begins to arrive Monday, with seas building in mainly long period swell through Tuesday, when they will peak around 8-11 ft. The swell will only gradually subside thorough the rest of the week as Paulette turns north the northeastward. SCAs will remain in effect for the coastal waters through duration of the hazardous seas caused by Paulette, which is currently expected to be through at least Wednesday or Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM Sun...Gusty NE winds will develop along the coast Tuesday as strong high pressure builds in from the north. That, combined with increasing long period swell from distant Hurricane Paulette, could result in several threats along the coast. Some wave guidance indicates 8-10 ft seas every 13-15 seconds. Though still a few days out, there is potential for coastal flooding, ocean overwash, and rough surf along the coast early to mid next week (especially north of Cape Lookout). Dangerous rip currents will be likely all of next week. Please continue to monitor the threat closely over the next several days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ150-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...CB/ML MARINE...CB/ML TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX