906 
FXUS65 KFGZ 111608
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
908 AM MST Fri Sep 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A smoke layer from the western United States wildfires
will shroud the sun over much of northern Arizona today but is
expected to push southward on Saturday. High pressure will 
rebuild over the area through the weekend and early next week 
bringing a period of warmer weather. There will be a low chance 
for showers or storms over the White Mountains each afternoon with
otherwise dry weather across northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A smoke layer from the western United States wildfires
will shroud the sun over much of northern Arizona today. Model
streamlines are suggesting that the elevated smoke layer should be
pushed southward on Saturday. Where the thick smoke layer exists 
high temperatures could come in lower than shown in the current 
forecast. Otherwise, light winds and a strangely sunny day are in
the forecast.

Arizona remains under a dry northwesterly flow aloft in response 
to a strong high pressure ridge building over the west coast. This
ridge will slide eastward over the coming days dominating the 
weather across the region.

Expect mainly dry conditions through the weekend into next week
with warm temperatures. Upper level westerly flow may draw areas
of elevated smoke from California wildfires into Arizona later
this afternoon leading to hazy skies. Similar conditions may occur
over the weekend. There will be just enough moisture over the
White Mountains region to see a low chance for showers or
thunderstorms each afternoon, but the majority of northern Arizona
will remain dry. The best chance for any storm activity looks to
be on Sunday or Monday when a slight increase in mid level
moisture moves into east-central Arizona.

Temperatures will warm to above average over the weekend and
remain so through next week. Luckily, temperatures will not reach
the excessive levels we saw last weekend.

&&

.AVIATION....For the 18Z package...VFR conditions and light winds 
will prevail for the next 24 hours. A thick layer of elevated smoke 
will cover much of the area today, but reduction in surface 
visibility is not anticipated. Aviation discussion not updated for 
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for mainly dry and warming temperatures today 
and Saturday. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the White 
Mountains each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Afternoon temperatures remain warm. Haines 
Indices climb to 5 or 6 for areas north of I-40 Sunday. Continued 
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances each day over the eastern 
Mogollon Rim and across the White Mountains. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MCT
AVIATION...TPS/NL
FIRE WEATHER...TPS/NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff