805 FXUS62 KTAE 110724 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 324 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The local area will generally reside between a tropical wave moving west through the northern Gulf, and another wave forecast to move through the Bahamas. However, under deep-layer easterly flow the tropical moisture transport will continue to fuel afternoon thunderstorms. Storms today will primarily be forced along the Atlantic seabreeze/convergent zone, and along the Gulf seabreeze/convergent zone in north Florida. Expect another mid to late afternoon start to storms, with convective activity diminishing late into the evening. Highs will once again climb to around 90 degrees, with heat indices peaking around 100 degrees. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... In the upper levels, the ridge over the region will weaken on Saturday. At the surface, a tropical wave will move northwestward into the region this weekend. Deep layer moisture advection will bring high rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend. PWAT values will be around 2 inches on Saturday and 2.3 inches on Sunday. POPs will be around 70 to 80 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening with scattered thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected, however, locally higher rain rates may lead to nuisance flooding of low-lying areas and ponding of water on roadways. Highs will be in the upper 80s and near 90. Lows will be in the low 70s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... In the upper levels, a few weak troughs will move through Florida and the Northeastern Gulf this week. At the surface, high pressure north and east of the region will keep low level flow easterly or southeasterly. Due to deep layer moisture advection, the wet pattern will continue. POPs will be high on Monday and Tuesday at 50 to 70 percent every afternoon/evening with scattered thunderstorms. POPs will be a bit lower at 30 to 60 percent on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Saturday] A brief period of MVFR/IFR is expected over the next couple of hours near ECP and DHN as light rain dissipates and moves west. Otherwise, a more solid MVFR/IFR deck is expected to overspread the region from east to west once again tonight. Expect restrictions to scatter/lift to VFR around 14z, with showers and thunderstorms expected at or near all terminals tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Easterly winds will be 10 to 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will increase to 2 to 4 feet over the weekend. A wet pattern will continue through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days, with wet conditions forecast to continue into next week. && .HYDROLOGY... A wet pattern will prevail over the next several days, as a rich tropical airmass dominates our area. Current Day-7 QPF estimates from WPC yield about 2-4 inches along the immediate coast and 1-2 inches farther inland. Flooding may be concern for some areas that receive prolonged precipitation. Expect these values to change also as confidence increases on the evolution of a tropical disturbance in entering the Gulf late this weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 75 90 73 88 / 60 40 70 40 80 Panama City 89 77 90 75 88 / 50 40 80 50 80 Dothan 89 73 89 71 87 / 60 40 70 30 70 Albany 91 74 89 73 87 / 40 40 70 20 70 Valdosta 89 74 89 73 87 / 70 20 70 30 70 Cross City 90 75 90 73 87 / 70 20 80 40 80 Apalachicola 87 78 87 76 86 / 40 40 70 60 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Harrigan SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan HYDROLOGY...IG