405 
FXUS63 KLMK 110019
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
819 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

The quasi-stationary front that has been to our north for most of 
the week has dropped south and stalled close to the Ohio River. 
Satellite is showing low level stratus across northern and central 
Indiana this afternoon. This stratus deck looks to drop south into 
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky overnight. We will remain dry 
and warm with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s under cloudy to 
mostly cloudy skies. 

Clouds look to linger through the morning as the front remains 
stalled across KY tomorrow. By the afternoon we should see some 
breaks in the clouds with sunshine as temperatures turn a little 
more seasonal in the mid 80s for highs.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

An unsettled weekend is in store as an upper low moves east across 
the Upper Midwest Saturday and the Great Lakes Sunday, opening up as 
it does so. Warm front or inverted sfc trof over eastern Kentucky 
and falling heights aloft will allow at least scattered showers and 
storms by Saturday afternoon. Look for just garden-variety 
thunderstorms, as we'll have just enough flow to keep storms moving 
and avoid any flooding, but the stronger dynamics for any SVR threat 
will remain to our north. By Sunday the main trof axis and sfc cold 
front will push through. Timing is the key on this fropa, as it will 
be early enough west of I-65 to limit POPs to 20-30%, while the 
arrival closer to the heat of the day will support a 70-80% POP 
toward the I-75 corridor. 

Canadian high pressure crossing the Great Lakes will keep most of 
the area dry Monday and Tuesday, though the decaying front will be 
draped across the Tennessee Valley and could support a slight chance 
for storms over extreme southern Kentucky each afternoon. Temps will 
run near or just below normal, with dewpoints in the upper 50s each 
day. By Wednesday the high retreats east of the Appalachians, 
opening the door for return flow, with the associated increase in 
both humidity and POPs.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 818 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

VFR weather will continue through at least 06-09z Fri. Diurnal cu 
has mostly dissipated, but narrow band of cu lingers just west of 
LEX with even a lone shower drifting southwest away from LEX. Winds 
will generally stay between 3-6 kts out of the northeast overnight. 

A weak cold front continues to drift south across the region, and 
low level moisture increasing on the north side of this boundary 
will bring stratus to the northern TAF sites around or just before 
daybreak. Fuel alternate MVFR is the most likely category for 
ceilings, until they begin to lift between 15-17z. Skies will likely 
stay BKN through early afternoon before becoming SCT. With the 
stratus likely still north of BWG around 09-13z Fri, MVFR fog will 
be possible at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...EBW