074 FXUS64 KMOB 082108 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 408 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...A stout upper level low will persist over the southwestern CONUS. Meanwhile, upper ridging will break down somewhat over the southeastern CONUS as an inverted trough forms over Florida Wednesday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure over the Appalachians has weakened as a slow moving boundary moves over the Carolina coastline and central Florida. A cold front is also expected to progress over the central Plains and Mississippi Valley through midweek. Some scattered showers moved over the Alabama open Gulf waters as well as over Mobile Bay earlier this afternoon, and produced outflows which sparked additional convection over Mobile County. This has since progressed west over southeast Mississippi. Expecting most of the shower and storm activity to dwindle through this evening. By late tonight, model guidance suggests the development of isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two over the Gulf waters and right along the coast. However, a pocket of drier air will move across the local area tonight through tomorrow. This will result in model PWATs between 1.2-1.6 inches through the day Wednesday. Thus, much shower/storm development will be hindered over the land areas, with merely slight chances (15-25% PoP) expected south of I-65. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s, followed by highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again Wednesday. With dew points generally in the lower 70s, although some areas north of Highway 84 could see dew points in the upper 60s, heat indices will only reach the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon. Lastly, the MODERATE RISK continues for the western Florida Panhandle beaches as well as the LOW RISK for the southwestern Alabama beaches today. A LOW RISK then follows for all beaches tonight through at least midweek; however, this will continue to be monitored. /26 && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An inverted upper trough extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northward to the western Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Thursday afternoon. This trough will then shift slightly westward Thursday night through Friday and break down as an upper high pressure ridge becomes re-established over the southeast states. A surface ridge stretching southwest over the Appalachians Wednesday night will also break down Thursday through Friday afternoon as several very subtle easterly waves pass over the deep south. The surface ridge will then become re-established over the Appalachians and southeast states Friday night. This will keep light surface winds shifting back and forth from the northeast to east through the short term, with precipitable water values fluctuating between 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday, followed by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday due to the closer proximity of the upper and surface troughs. A few thunderstorms may be strong each afternoon and early evening, with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph possible. Temperatures will remain at a bit above seasonal norms through the short term, with overnight low ranging from 70 to 75 degrees inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast. High temperatures will range from 88 to 93 degrees. /22 && .EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The upper low over the northern plains to start the period will move east and evolve into an open wave as it passes over the Great Lakes region over the weekend. A trailing upper trough and associated cold front will advance eastward as well with the front moving into the southeast late in the period. This will lead to very little change through much of the period as upper ridging continues to prevail over the southeast. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the extended term, mainly during the afternoon and evening in a daily diurnal pattern. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout the extended term. Low temperatures each night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland areas, with mid and upper 70s along the coast. /22 && .MARINE...No significant impacts are expected through the end of the week. However, chances of isolated to scattered showers will continue through midweek, then increase in coverage through late week. This will lead to locally higher waves and seas in and around any storms that do develop. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob