219 FXUS62 KTAE 080103 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 903 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020 .UPDATE... Only minor updates were made to the forecast evening, most notably to lower the pops as showers/storms have not been as widespread as previously thought, likely due to drier air in the region. Showers/storms will linger across the waters overnight before increasing in coverage again on Tuesday. Lows tonight will still be in the lower 70s. && .PREV DISCUSSION [619 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]... A similar pattern to what has been observed over the last two days is expected to occur tomorrow with higher PoPs possible across our extreme south eastern Georgia counties, and eastern Florida Big Bend counties. This is mainly supported by the constant easterly to northeasterly flow at the surface that is creating an instability axis right through the aforementioned zones. With PW values approaching 1.9 inches through these areas, showers and thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon and early evening as the Atlantic seabreeze slowly marches east towards these areas. Progression farther west from the previously discussed areas will be prohibited by a stark mid-level dry air column where PW values fall to near 1.4 inches. This increase of dry air coupled with a loss of daytime heating will prevent most storms from passing Jefferson county Florida. Generally, these storms are not expected to produce severe weather besides a few wind gusts with the stronger storms. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the low 70s, while highs in the afternoon will climb into the low 90s. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Thursday]... The mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley will hold influence over our sensible weather through at least Wednesday. The drier air and subsidence will persist northwest of the Flint River and FL Big Bend, leading to a gradient in PoPs - Overall, 30-40 pct west, increasing to 50-60 pct for the I-75 corridor into the Big Bend. The ridge begins to break down and by Thursday, expect a more uniform pattern of 50-70 pct PoPs across most of the region. Model trends have been to break this ridge down too quickly, so PoPs on Thursday could be a bit too high. Also coordinated with surrounding offices, as PoP guidance has been biased too high in the 10-20 pct range, and the aforementioned PoPs reflect this adjustment downward. Precipitation will be diurnally driven with temperatures near seasonal levels. .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The deep layer flow is modeled to transition from easterly to southerly by Saturday as a long wave trough approaches the MS Valley, with Preciptable Water (PW) AOA 2.0 inches becoming prevalent. A frontal boundary approaches from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, and is favored to stall north of the area, as the deep layer flow increasingly parallels it. Heavier precipitation is possible, mainly in the Friday through Sunday timeframe, again diurnally driven for the most part. Given an environment characterized by ample moisture and instability forced by both Gulf and East Coast sea-breeze circulations within weak steering currents aloft, the main concern is isolated flooding, but a pulse severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. PoPs were maintained at 50-70 pct through the period, which remains below the high-biased guidance, per aforementioned collaboration with surrounding offices. By early next week, subtropical ridging may lead to a drying trend, but that is uncertain given the nearby frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain near seasonal levels through the period. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, which will mainly impact TLH and VLD through the afternoon to early evening time frame. There are some signals for lower cigs at TLH and VLD tomorrow morning; however, confidence still remains too low to include during this TAF cycle. On the next TAF cycle a more clear trend with the morning CIGs should develop. .MARINE... Easterly winds will persist through the remainder of the forecast. Winds around 15 knots are likely tonight into Tuesday Morning and again Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. This will briefly raise significant wave heights to around 3 feet west of the Ochlocknee River. Daily chances of showers and storms are expected. Otherwise, tranquil boating conditions. .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns over the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Above average precipitation chances are likely through the next 7 days which means the risk for isolated flooding will grow slightly compared to what we've seen over the Labor Day weekend. Regardless, a diurnal pattern to storms is expected and area averaged amounts will likely only be around 1 to 2 inches through next weekend, with the highest amounts expected along the SE Big Bend of FL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 90 72 90 73 / 10 40 20 50 20 Panama City 74 89 74 89 75 / 20 30 30 40 30 Dothan 71 90 71 90 72 / 0 20 10 30 10 Albany 71 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 10 40 10 Valdosta 72 88 71 88 73 / 10 50 10 60 20 Cross City 72 89 72 90 73 / 20 50 30 70 30 Apalachicola 76 87 75 87 76 / 30 30 40 50 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...LN NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM...LF AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Dobbs