848 FXUS62 KMHX 051745 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 145 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push across the area early this morning. High pressure will build in from the north through early next week with a coastal trough just offshore. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM Saturday... The latest sfc analysis is showing the cold front south of the area, while northerly winds are ramping up with CAA increasing. Overall, today will be cooler and drier as high pressure builds in from the north, though, there remains low level moisture, instability, and shear present along the immediate southern zones, at the same time a vort max will move through the area from the west that can help initiate isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances will be along and just inland of the southern coastal zones where the sea breeze is expected to be pinned through the afternoon. Dewpoints will drop into the mid 60s inland to around 70 on the coast this afternoon making it feel more comfortable than the past several days. Low level thicknesses are around 20m lower as well with highs expected in the mid 80s most areas, though portions of the Crystal Coast may reach the upper 80s before convection initiates this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build into the mid-Atlantic tonight with northerly flow continuing across the region. Convection across southern sections will wane during the evening with loss of heating and most of the region will remain dry overnight, however scattered showers expected near an offshore trough that may skirt coastal sections overnight. Lows expected from the mid 60s inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...The forecast will be mostly dry through Monday then rain chances should ramp up significantly mid through late next week as SE to S flow off of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic occurs across NC. A trough of low pressure offshore will slowly approach the coast Tue, moving inland Wed and Thu helping to enhance precipitation. A cold front from the west could move into the area late next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal through the period with a noticeable increase in humidity mid through late week. Sunday and Monday...A front will stall just offshore through the period. The 00Z model runs seem to have converged on a drier solution keeping the boundary far enough offshore as high pressure builds in from the north, such that there will only be a low chance of a few coastal showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday...The aforementioned trough of low pressure begins to move inland with deep onshore flow developing across the area. This should lead to at least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during peak heating. Wednesday through Friday...More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the trough of low pressure onshore and the approach of a cold front late in the period, combined with a flow of deep moisture across the area. Will increase PoPs to the low likely range, with the best coverage during peak heating. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 145 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. The cold front is to the south of the area with high pressure building from the NW bringing a drier and cooler airmass across the region. There is a possible chance for an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm to develop along the to southern coastal sections, though cannot rule out an isolated storm impacting OAJ this afternoon. Cloud coverage will reduce overnight. Gusty NE winds this afternoon, then becoming N/NE 5-8 knots overnight, though some models are indicating winds can become calm over PGV/ISO. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Nerly flow will bring ocnl threat of sct/bkn early morning low stratus and thus sub VFR Sunday into early next week. Rain chances will increase Tue and Wed as better moisture feed and a trough of low pressure produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the best coverage during peak heating. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 1015 AM Saturday...The latest buoy obs are showing northerly winds 10-20 knots and seas 2-4 ft. The cold front is to the south of the waters this morning and high pressure will build in from the NW today. Winds have become N to NE behind the front with the surge a bit stronger than forecast, so have increased winds some with the morning update. The surge will continue 15-20 kt through the short term with occasional gusts to around 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft this morning will build to 3-5 ft tonight. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Moderate NE flow 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt is expected Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure builds over the waters from the north. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kt late Sunday night. The flow will become easterly 10-15 kt Mon and continue through Wed as a trough of low pressure moves through the waters Tue and inland Wed. Seas 3-5 ft are expected through Sun evening then will be mainly 2-4 ft Mon through Wed. Showers will be sct to numerous Tue into Wed with perhaps some ocnl thunder. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK/MHX NEAR TERM...SK/BM SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME/TL AVIATION...JME/BM MARINE...JME/SK/BM