417 FXUS61 KRLX 042323 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 723 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings pleasant weather tonight and Saturday. Warming trend begins next week as high pressure exits. A cold front may arrive late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... No changes required, forecast on track. As of 139 PM Friday... As of writing, a cold front was pushing across the far southern CWA and into the northeast mountains...and should clear the CWA within a few hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been accompanying the front, but those too will end as the front exits. Strong surface high pressure will then build into the region tonight and Saturday resulting in very comfortable weather conditions. Dewpoints will drop significantly through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight, with ambient air temps also quickly falling this evening. MUCH cooler conditions are expected tonight, approx 15 to 25 degrees cooler than what have been experienced the last several nights. A little uncertain as to just how cool we will get tonight, as wind speeds just off the surface may provide a bit too much llvl mixing to reach peak cooling. Have generally gone with a statistical consensus blend for tonight's values, but even then I may still be a few degrees too warm in some areas. Beautiful weather conditions expected during the day Saturday with only a little bit of cirrus at times. Dewpoints will remain low with afternoon highs being at, or slightly below, normal for early September. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... High pressure will be well established over the area by the start of the period, deflecting any chance for showers or thunderstorms into the start of the new work week. The holiday weekend will therefore feature mostly clear skies and low humidity across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Low pressure crossing through Canada may attempt to send a few showers into southeast Ohio Monday afternoon via shortwave energy, but should be on a weakening trend as it approaches. Otherwise, we should start to see upper level flow backing out of the southwest once again by late in the period, becoming more prevalent for midweek and beyond. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... The upper level pattern becomes more amplified heading into the long term period, starting off with a deepening trough over the Rockies. This will establish a southwest flow regime over the forecast area, inviting moisture back overhead, and placing us in a hot and muggy pattern once more. Consensus between models is still questionable this far out in the forecast, but it does appear that the end of the work week will see the return of rain and thunderstorm possibilities as the trough closes into an upper low and traverses the eastern half of the country. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... Other than thin high clouds streaming out of the southwest, mainly clear skies expected overnight. Drier air will continue to advect into the region from the northwest from much of the overnight with boundary layer flow generally strong enough to limit fog formation aside from the most protected river valleys. Flow begins to slacken toward daybreak which may allow for patchy fog formation near the remainder of the terminals, but should be quick to dissipate Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog forming toward daybreak may briefly drop visibilities below advertised values. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR river valley fog possible Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/MEK NEAR TERM...RH/JP SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP