676 FXUS61 KPHI 042219 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 619 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push offshore into the overnight as high pressure builds eastward across the eastern U.S. This high will largely dominate our weather through the middle of next week, with dry weather through the holiday weekend. An area of low pressure across the western U.S. will gradually work its way eastward through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Some lingering showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, will pass through extreme southeast New Jersey and southern portions of Delmarva early this evening as as a cold front pushes through the region. There may be a few brief downpours, especially in the Cape May area. Showers will end shortly after sunset. Otherwise, cold air advection pushes in this evening and temps should fall rather quickly from west to east this evening. Lows will drop into the 50s to low 60s with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s. Anticipate mostly clear skies through the evening as the atmosphere undergoes dry air advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure continues with modest highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. North to northwesterly winds will be becoming westerly heading into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A quiet start to the extended forecast period as high pressure continues to dominate our weather across the eastern U.S. A pattern shift will continue to take hold as an amplifying trough across the Inner-mountain West sends a series of shortwaves through the Midwest and into southern Ontario Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Ridging across the eastern CONUS will stubbornly keep these departing surface lows out of our region through Monday as a frontal boundary and baroclinic zone sets up across the middle of the country, originating from what will have been a quite potent cold front across the Front Range of the Rockies. Overall, fairly benign temperature forecast here, with the only item of concern being a more pronounced onshore flow/cold air damming signal late Monday into Tuesday. There is a chance for more drizzle and showers by this time, thus added showers to the grids for Tuesday and Wednesday. Adjusted highs downward a touch starting Tuesday into Wednesday to account for this. In general, highs should be near to just above normal for this time of the year in the low 80s across much of the area, with slightly cooler temperatures in the higher terrain and along the immediate coast. The forecast remains somewhat uncertain after Wednesday as the main mid-level low across the West begins to lift towards the Great Lakes, thus kept general PoPs mentioned Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Light N winds. High confidence. Saturday...VFR. N-NW winds less than 10 kt. High confidence. .Outlook... Sunday through Tuesday... VFR conditions are expected through this time period. Northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots on Sunday turning southeasterly on Monday and Tuesday from 5 to 10 knots. A few showers may be possible late in the day on Tuesday as flow turns more onshore. High confidence through Tuesday, moderate confidence on the timing of any showers Tuesday. Wednesday...Scattered showers with MVFR restrictions possible. Easterly onshore winds from 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 15 knots. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday with gusts up to 20kts during the afternoon Saturday. Seas will generally be 2-3 feet for the Atlantic Waters. Outlook... .Outlook... Generally sub advisory conditions are anticipated through Wednesday as southerly winds gradually transition to an easterly direction Monday through Wednesday from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots possible at times. Rip currents... With low wave heights anticipated, the rip current risk will remain low to start the holiday weekend. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Deal Near Term...Deal/MPS Short Term...Deal Long Term...Davis Aviation...Davis/MPS Marine...Davis/Deal