417 
FXUS64 KMEG 010008
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
708 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020/ 

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the Eastern third of
the Midsouth. So far today we have had some localized flooding 
concerns but storms have remained well below severe limits. 
Temperatures are all over the place due to numerous outflow 
boundaries across the area, but most of us are currently in the 
upper 70s to middle 80s. Tupelo is the outlier having warmed to 90
degrees. 

We will essentially remain in the same pattern for the next 3 to 4
days. A trough is currently deepening over the Intermountain West 
and will continue to deepen through midweek while slowly shifting 
East. The Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of the Midsouth 
in a Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms this afternoon and 
Tonight and tomorrow. Damaging wind and flooding are the main 
threats. We expect the next round of showers and thunderstorms
to approach the Midsouth a few hours after sunrise tomorrow. 

By Wednesday morning the longwave trough expected to be oriented 
from Minnesota, across the Central Plains to over the Texas 
Panhandle where it will feature a cutoff low. This pattern will 
place the Midsouth under Southwest flow tomorrow through late 
Thursday or even early Friday. Several rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms are expected as disturbance after disturbance 
rotates around the base of the trough and eventually across the 
Midsouth. There will likely be 10-12 hour breaks between 
disturbances resulting in less coverage of showers, but it does 
not look like we will have much of a dry spell through at least 
sometime Friday. Right now the bullseye storm track, resulting in 
the highest rainfall totals, is expected to be from Southeast 
Oklahoma, across North Central Arkansas into Southeast Missouri. 
along this path, 3-6 inches of rain looks likely. East Arkansas 
and the Missouri Bootheel will likely see the highest totals in 
the Midsouth where 3-4 inches could fall. WPC currently has 1-3 
expected across the remainder of the Midsouth, but that could 
change based on the track of the upper low. We are also expected 
to have abundant moisture around through the work week, so it 
would not surprise me at all if forecast rain totals increase 
significantly. If they do, a flooding threat may evolve, most 
likely across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and 
possibly portions of West Tennessee. As a result we will keep 
advertising the threat of flooding in the Hazardous Weather 
Outlook. 

High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s Monday through Friday
with lows in the low to middle 70s. After the longwave trough axis
and associated cold front shifts East of the Midsouth, probably
Friday, cooler and drier conditions are expected. Low temperatures
over the weekend may dip into the upper 50s with widespread low to
middle 60s across the Midsouth. Dew points in the upper 50s are
expected to make it as far south as the Mississippi State line
both Saturday and Sunday mornings giving us a hint of Fall. High 
temperatures may remain in the 70s across Northern areas Saturday 
with low to mid 80s farther South. High temperatures in the low to
middle 80s are expected Sunday.
  
Guidance is in pretty good agreement that a reinforcing cold 
front will move through the Midsouth early next week. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...

In the short term some TSRAs are moving through the KTUP area so 
included TSRAs through 01z. Otrw expect mainly VFR conds through 
much of the overnight until some low clouds and light fog develop 
toward sunrise. Next round of SHRAs/TSRAs will move into the area 
Tuesday morning. The bulk of activity looks like it will be moving
through KJBR with KMEM/KMKL on the periphery though confidence in
placement is fairly low. This next batch of convection should 
push east of the area by mid/late afternoon followed by VFR conds.
Light winds overnight will become southwest at 8-10 kts on 
Tuesday. 

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$