305 AXUS75 KPSR 301311 DGTPSR Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 610 AM MST Sun Aug 30 2020 ...Extreme Drought Rapidly Blossoms over South-Central Arizona... Synopsis... After fairly good winter and early spring precipitation, monsoon rainfall across the region has been much below normal. Many locations are experiencing one of their driest monsoon seasons on record, and now that is feeding back into top 10 driest year-to-date deficits. Aside from below normal precipiation, exacerbating the drought is record warmth this summer where many locations are setting all-time monthly and seasonal records. This resulting enhanced evapotranspiration is acting as a multiplier effect on short term drought impacts, and has aided in the rapid succession towards extreme drought. More prolific rainfall in the next month will be needed to improve drought conditions before the end of the monsoon and entry into the drier autumn season. Extreme Drought has quickly emerged over all of Gila County and the eastern half of Pinal and Maricopa counties. Severe Drought covers the western portions of Pinal and Maricopa counties while Moderate Drought and Abnormally Dry conditions were still prevalent in far southwest Arizona. Thus far, Southeast California remain in the Abnormally Dry category. Severe and Extreme Drought now covers 82% of Arizona as compared to just 7% two months ago. The tropical Pacific is currently in a neutral state, however confidence is good that weak La Nina conditions will emerge during the fall and winter season. While other factors do contribute to the atmospheric pattern, La Nina during the fall and winter typically results in dry weather, and current odds are definitely stacked towards this outcome. Summary of Impacts... Rangeland and pasture conditions have been deteriorating quickly this summer with the lack of rain and extremely hot temperatures. Forage area has deteriorated rapidly impacting ranchers and reports around the region also indicate stock ponds are virtually dry requiring water hauling. The latest report indicates 60% of the rangeland and pasture area is rated as poor or very poor. This compares to 39% of the area at this time last year. Wildfires have been a tremendous problem in Arizona this spring and summer with over 700,000 acres burned - more than the past 2 years combined. The combination of abundant fine fuels from successive wet winters along with excessive summer heat and lack of rain has resulted in a very dangerous situation. Typically, monsoon rains will have long since ended the fire season by the end of August, however many national forests in the state are still under fire restrictions. Until better rainfall occurs, very dry 10-hour fuels will be receptive to burning and fire spread. Climate Summary... Late winter and early spring precipitation was ample across the region, however monsoon totals have been spotty at best. Areas that have missed the summer rains have suffered the most and rankings have fallen into the top 10 driest years on record locally. Totals and rankings are given below (please note some stations have a limited historical record and rankings may not be as significant). Since Since Dept Percent Rank Jan 1 Jan 1 from of Normal Driest 2020 Normal Normal Phoenix AZ 4.55 5.20 -0.65 88 70th Scottsdale AZ 5.41 6.54 -0.67 81 N/A Globe AZ 6.19 11.40 -5.21 54 N/A Yuma AZ 3.96 2.05 +1.91 193 133rd Blythe CA 2.82 2.47 +0.35 114 51st Tucson AZ 3.66 7.72 -4.06 47 6th Flagstaff AZ 8.45 13.92 -5.47 61 10th Precipitation/Temperature Outlook... The approximate probability values for above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation for September and the 3-month period September-October-November are given below and valid for Southeast California and Southwest and South-central Arizona. These probabilities are derived from outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center and are accessible through their website listed below. The temperature outlook corresponds to the average temperature during the period, while the precipitation outlook comprises the total precipitation over the period. Temperatures have a much better chance of being above normal during the month of September, as well as the 3-month period of September through November. Precipitation totals have a better chance of falling below average in September, but a nearly equal chance of hitting the above, below, or near normal category in the September through November period. Temperature Precipitation Probability Probability Above/Near/Below Above/Near/Below Normal Normal September 2020.............. 54 / 33 / 13 27 / 33 / 40 Sep-Oct-Nov 2020............ 53 / 31 / 16 33 / 33 / 33 Hydrologic Summary and Outlook... Consecutive beneficial winter seasons in both 2018-19 and 2019-20 helped nearly fill the Salt/Verde reservoir system. The recent hot weather has only been a minor draw on the system, and summer rainfall typically does not contribute much in the way of recharge. 08/27/2020 08/27/2019 08/27/2018 --------- --------- --------- Roosevelt 89 69 42 Horse Mesa 93 94 93 Mormon Flat 96 95 96 Stewart Mtn 92 92 92 Total Salt 89 73 51 Horseshoe 0 5 4 Bartlett 94 86 45 Total Verde 59 55 29 Total System 86 71 48 Next Issuance Date... The next issuance of this Drought Information Statement will occur around September 18th. && Related Websites: Additional information is available at the following locations: NWS Forecast Office Phoenix: weather.gov/Phoenix National Integrated Drought Information System: drought.gov US Drought Monitor: droughtmonitor.unl.edu Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Arizona State Climate Office: azclimate.asu.edu Arizona Dept of Water Resources: new.azwater.gov/drought Western Regional Climate Center: wrcc.dri.edu US Geological Survey: water.usgs.gov Acknowledgement: Information included in this statement was compiled from various federal, state, and local agencies. Questions or Comments: National Weather Service Phoenix E-mail: w-psr.webmaster@noaa.gov