840 
FXUS64 KOUN 300810
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

The thunderstorm complex across southern Oklahoma and north Texas
will persist early this morning before weakening and moving out.
Another warm day is expected in southern Oklahoma and north Texas
and some areas of south central and southeast Oklahoma may 
approach Heat Advisory criteria again depending on how quickly the
clouds dissipate. With this uncertainty and heat index values
expected to be borderline, will not issue an advisory with this
package this morning.

A number of models suggest another round of storms developing and
moving into the southwest again tonight. The forcing is not as
apparent as last night/this morning, so will not have POPs quite
as high as models might suggest, but there are hints of some
isentropic lift and the QPF signal is enough among the models to 
include some POPs in the chance category for this scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Precipitation chances will continue to increase Sunday night into 
early next week, with widespread chances of heavy rain. Moisture 
advection will continue into the area, with precipitable water 
values reaching widespread values >2 inches across most of the 
region on Tuesday. Areas of precipitation initially will be focused 
more along surface boundaries that develop. In the upper levels, 
embedded shortwaves will assist in precipitation development through 
Monday while a upper level trough will begin moving towards the 
region. 

Models diverge significantly on the behavior of the upper level 
trough and low cyclone as it approaches. For the ECMWF, the upper 
level lows stalls in New Mexico, and then remains there as cyclone 
fills and dissipates over the next few days, which would result in 
widespread, weaker precipitation chances in the area through next 
weekend. The GFS has the upper level low much more progressive, 
resulting in ample upper level support for widespread heavy 
precipitation across western north Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday, as 
well as pleasant weather for the remainder of the week with lower 
moisture, cooler temperatures, and very low precipitation 
chances. For now, some slight precipitation chances have been 
included through late next week, however a close eye will need to 
be on this upper level trough behavior as we get closer to 
Tuesday.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandles should steadily weaken as
they continue eastward but are likely to impact WWR, CSM, and
probably LAW, and SPS. The tendency should be the for strongest
convection to be on its southern flank, likely avoiding OKC and 
OUN. Some MVFR stratus may occur during the early morning, 
although details will depend on evolution of convection and thus 
spatiotemporal confidence is low at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  73  93  71 /  40  30  40  70 
Hobart OK         95  74  95  69 /  30  30  30  50 
Wichita Falls TX  99  77  98  72 /  30  40  40  60 
Gage OK           93  65  85  63 /  10  20  20  30 
Ponca City OK     87  69  90  68 /  30  20  40  70 
Durant OK         96  77  97  72 /  40  20  50  60 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...12