323 FXUS64 KSJT 300544 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1244 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across the terminals through the next 24 hours. Continuing to watch scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning north of the Big Country but this activity should remain north of the KABI terminal. Otherwise, southerly winds on Sunday with gusts to around 15 knots in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ UPDATE... Sent out a quick update to add PoPs in for mainly the eastern portions of the Big Country. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next hour or two, then begin to dissipate. These storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and dangerous lightning. Otherwise, no other changes are needed at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will persist across the area the next 24 hours. Isolated convection is possible this evening across the Big Country, but is expected to remain north of KABI. Expect light winds tonight, with south winds gusting to 15 knots at KSJT and KABI on Sunday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Sunday) Mainly Dry and Not as Hot... Aside from a very small chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, across mainly our Big Country counties, the short- term forecast remains dry, with slightly cooler temperatures. Short- term, high-resolution models indicate another surface boundary may move into our Big County counties, much like last night. So, continuing slight chance PoPs, for our northern Big County counties, looks reasonable, for tonight. Then, convection Sunday afternoon, to our north, may move into our northeastern Big County counties. Thus, slight chance PoPs, for Sunday afternoon, look reasonable too. Otherwise, short-term models don't present very promising rain chances, for the remainder of West Central Texas, tonight and Sunday. As for temperatures, MOS guidance data this cycle present forecast highs for Sunday perhaps a degree or two cooler than forecast highs for today; thus, a Heat Advisory, for Sunday, doesn't look necessary, for any of our counties. However, afternoon highs Sunday, in the 100 to perhaps 103 range, will likely be common, across most of West Central Texas. LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Wednesday) A dying frontal boundary across the Red River Sunday night could trigger some late afternoon and overnight thunderstorms that could affect Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Highs will range from 100 to 103 degrees on Monday as the upper high weakens across the area. We should continue to see a gradual cooling trend through the rest of next week as the upper high finally weakens across the area. Both models continue to show a deepening shortwave trough diving southeast towards the Southern U.S. early next week with differing solutions. By Tuesday evening, the ECMWF closes an upper low over the Arizona and New Mexico Border, while the GFS brings the upper low into the Texas Panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's much faster and doesn't close off the upper low. A dryline should form across the Panhandle and Northwest Texas Monday evening ahead of this upper level shortwave trough. This could result in a chance for storms for West Central Texas Monday night into Tuesday. The better chance of storms should be across the Big Country and northern Concho Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning as storms track east and southeast into portions of West Central Texas. The best lift from the upper level shortwave trough or upper low should be across West Central Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plan to go with chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday as both models prog a surface trough of low pressure across West Central Texas. (Thursday through Saturday) Slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday through Saturday with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 101 78 100 74 / 5 10 30 50 San Angelo 104 76 102 76 / 0 5 10 30 Junction 103 74 101 75 / 0 0 5 20 Brownwood 103 75 101 75 / 10 5 10 30 Sweetwater 103 79 100 75 / 5 10 30 50 Ozona 100 75 98 76 / 0 5 5 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42