517 FXUS61 KBGM 260553 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 153 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler dry weather will briefly visit with high pressure today. However, showers and some thunderstorms will move into the area tonight with a warm front, marking the turn to an active pattern for the rest of this week. Some thunderstorms Thursday may be severe. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 553 PM update... Storms exited the forecast area. The severe thunderstorm watch is canceled. Previous discussion... Expect mainly dry weather late evening and overnight, with clearing skies. It will be breezy this evening with NW Winds 10-20 mph and a few gusts up to 30 mph. Winds diminish to under 10 mph after midnight as even drier low level air advects in from the north. It will be much cooler and less humid tonight with lows ranging from 45-55 across CNY and into the 50s for NE PA. Weak high pressure remains over the region through the day on Wednesday with a continued dry NW flow pattern. It will be a little breezy in the afternoon, as winds aloft mix down to the surface. Expect NW winds 8-15 mph, with some gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. There could be some lake effect clouds in the NNW flow mainly along and west of I-81 in the morning, otherwise expect mostly sunny skies. There will be very low humidity, with surface dew points only in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s for much of CNY and 70s to around 80 across NE PA. A warm front approaches from the southwest by late Wednesday evening and pushes northeast across the forecast area overnight. This will bring more low level moisture and elevated instability to the region. Model guidance shows a band of rain and embedded thunderstorms developing as this front moves through. SPC has a marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms during the late overnight period...especially west of I-81. 12km NAM has more MLCAPE after 06-09z...reaching 500-900 J/kg and 50 kts of deep layer shear. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS is more conservative...only showing a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE but also plenty of shear. Confidence remains low on just how strong these overnight storms may be. Otherwise, expect increasing clouds and more humid conditions with lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 330 pm update... A warm front stalls just to the north of our CWA, up across the Tug Hill Plateau and southern Adirondacks. The air mass will be significantly more hot, humid and unstable south of this boundary across CNY and NE PA. Surface dew points are progged to rise into the mid-60s to lower 70s areawide. As the front potentially gets hung up just to our north, there could be lingering cloud cover and showers along and north of the Thruway. Ultimately the amounts of instability across at least the northern third of our CWA will depend on just how far north this front gets. MLCAPE is forecast to be significant across much of our region, between 1500-2500 J/Kg with 0-6km deep layer shear values between 40-50 kts. There may also quite a bit of low level 0-1km shear up north, closer to the warm front...current soundings show up to 30 kts of 0-1km shear near Syracuse, Utica and Rome. SPC has the entire forecast area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms...current rough timing would indicate the best convective potential would be during the afternoon and early evening hours...starting up north the dropping off to the south and east into northeast PA by evening. Outside of the thunderstorm activity, expect mostly sunny skies for NE PA and partly sunny in CNY. It will be hot and humid in NE PA, with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s...heat indices could reach the mid to upper 90s in the valleys. Across CNY temperatures will range from 85-90 along and west of I-81...then in the mid- 70s to lower 80s across the northern Catskills and Mohawk Valley region. Conditions should gradually dry out with partial clearing from north to south Thursday night as the frontal boundary moves through. Winds turn light west-northwest but it remains quite humid with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 pm update... The trough digging into the Great Lakes region on Friday into Saturday has slowed slightly as well as digging further south. The remnants of Laura have also been trending slightly further north so PoPs have been increased on Saturday but decreased Friday morning to account for the slower motion. With the slower motion and deeper moisture to work with, the chance for seeing a longer duration rain event is increasing. Still uncertainty remains with how the remnants of Laura will interact with the digging trough and we will know more as Laura organizes further in the gulf. Previous discussion... Friday and Saturday are looking active, with a shift to southwesterly flow as the weak surface ridge moves eastward and a trough digging into the Great Lakes. This will help to advect in more heat and moisture - with indications still for the flow to phase somewhat with the incoming tropical system in the Gulf and bring in a longer period of rain and thunderstorms for Friday. This will continue for much of Saturday as the low pressure system moves through. This will definitely be something we will want to monitor, as such a long duration rain event would be problemtic especially considering that the earlier forecast periods also feature some wet weather. Rain largely wraps up Saturday evening as cooler, drier air works in. Some stray lake effect rain showers cannot be ruled out Sunday, but much of Sunday and Monday should stay dry with high pressure in control. Temperatures will be cooler, peaking in the 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected today, as high pressure passes. However, some lake moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion will cause brief MVFR ceilings at times for KELM- KITH early this morning; perhaps briefly KBGM. This evening, an advancing warm front will bring thickening clouds, as well as a chance for showers and eventually thunder. A greater likelihood occurs just after 06Z Thursday. Winds will generally be 5-10 knots with daytime gusts of 14-18 knots, before slackening to variable or very light southeast in the evening. Outlook... Late Wednesday night through Thursday morning...Warm front brings showers and embedded thunder with some restrictions. Thursday afternoon through evening...Cold front with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Late Thursday night through Friday morning...Post-frontal ceiling restrictions likely; possible fog as well. Friday afternoon through Saturday night...Occasional showers- thunderstorms and restrictions expected, especially Saturday. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...DJP/MJM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...AJG/MDP