733 FXUS64 KFWD 232331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday evening/ Another quiet short-term period as upper-level ridging remains in control. Highs today were close to normal, with DFW topping out at 95 F, and Waco at 98 F. Low humidity kept it relatively tolerable however, with dewpoints in the upper 50s for most locations as of this writing. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s in rural areas, and in the mid 70s in urban areas. Monday should be a near repeat of Sunday, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s, and dry conditions. The low humidity values and hot weather will allow for some initial attack fire activity, but light winds should temper the threat for rapid fire growth. Winds will begin shifting more easterly as a pair of tropical cyclones approaches the Gulf Coast, but these winds will remain very light. Any impacts from Marco/Laura would come during the long-term portion of the forecast (see discussion below). Godwin && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/ /Tuesday through Next Weekend/ Hot conditions will prevail through the week. While substantial impacts due to a pair of tropical cyclones are expected to remain low across North/Central TX from Marco and Laura, the additional fetch of tropical moisture westward results in rain/storm chances through a good portion of the work-week for parts of the area. While the model consensus continues to gradually improve regarding the placement of both tropical systems around landfall, there continues to be considerable spread among guidance as the tropical remnants drift farther inland. Rain chances will slowly ramp up Tuesday afternoon as our first tropical system (likely Marco) lifts northward. The synoptic picture will be characterized by an upper tropospheric trough. It should extend from the Great Lakes down into South Texas. Most models indicate that this feature should remain largely entrenched across our region and this appears to make sense given the swifter flow on the poleward side of the trough axis (compared to the equatorial side) based on upper air obs this morning. The upper trough should keep Marco's landfall near southeastern Louisiana. Marco will weaken rather quickly as it moves inland and will become ill-defined through the mid-levels. The track of Marco becomes challenging because of the aformentioned trough and a mid-level ridge across the eastern seaboard. If the upper ridge builds more, the remains of Marco will likely track a bit farther to the west (and thus greater rain chances across our East Texas counties). A weaker ridge will likely equate to more of a northward jog by Marco and lower rain chances for our region. For now, I'll maintain low PoPs on the 20 to 30 percent range, across East Texas. Strong winds are not anticipated as the circulation and surface pressure field will likely be pretty ill-defined as Marco loses its tropical characteristics. It'll be a little cooler for locations across East Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to a bit more in the way of denser cloud cover. If the 12Z GFS is to verify, however, it could be a lot warmer with less cloud cover and little to no precipitation. Through the rest of the work-week, we'll be monitoring the track of what should be Hurricane Laura. With the upper trough being displaced some to the northwest thanks to a slight nudge from Marco, Laura is likely to make more western landfall across the Louisiana/Texas coast. This will mean slightly greater rain/isolated storm chances for roughly the eastern half of North and Central Texas. In addition, the wind field associated with Laura will probably be a bit more intact, even this far north and we may need to beef up wind speeds in subsequent forecast iterations. Of course, if Laura tracks a bit more to the east of the current forecast, it's quite possible that most of our region will remain precip-free, less breezy, and mostly sunny. For now, I'll follow the previous forecast and keep PoPs a little higher than Tuesday around the mid-week timeframe. It does look like we will remain hot and with the additional fetch of moisture thanks to our tropical cyclones, heat index values will likely approach or exceed advisory levels. Next weekend appears to remain hot and humid with just some lingering rain/storm chances. Bain && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Light winds and VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Winds at some Metroplex TAF sites have become a little more easterly this evening, but should veer out of the southeast over the next few hours. Winds may return to an easterly direction on Monday afternoon, but with wind speeds remaining light (around 5 KT), crosswind impacts will be very minimal. Godwin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 96 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 Waco 72 97 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 10 20 Paris 68 93 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 20 Denton 72 95 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 5 10 McKinney 71 97 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dallas 75 97 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 Terrell 70 98 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 10 20 Corsicana 71 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 10 20 Temple 72 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 69 95 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 37/30