876 FXUS65 KBYZ 230848 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 248 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2020 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday night... A cold front has made it through the forecast area. Northeast to east winds will provide a relatively cooler day today. That being said, temperatures will still be above seasonal averages, with highs around 90 degrees. Expect a reprieve from the smoke for most areas, with easterly low level winds. Smoke will linger over southern sections and start to return to the west this afternoon. Ridging builds back for Monday. Expect another hot day then, with 700mb temperatures rising to 14-16c across the entire area. Highs will approach 100 degrees for many locations, which could be enough to tap some records. Smoke should make a return and this may take a couple of degrees off forecast highs. Monsoon moisture and weak energy return Monday afternoon in southwest mid level flow. Atmosphere will be pretty capped in the afternoon, but capping will erode in the evening as a cold front swings slowly across. Will keep the risk of thunderstorms for mainly Monday evening. TWH Tuesday through Sunday... Slightly cooler temps are expected for Tuesday, but should still see 90s in most locations. Another disturbance will cross the region Tuesday evening/night, bringing potential for showers and thunderstorms to overspread the region into Wednesday morning. A stronger disturbance is progged into the western zones by Wednesday afternoon, and overspreads the region through the evening and overnight. This should result in a lesser degree of daytime heating, so have adjusted temps downward slightly, toward MEX guidance. Have likewise marked temp grid for later shifts. Expect to see temps in the mid to upper 80s in most locations for Wednesday. The unsettled and cooler pattern continues for Thursday, with afternoon/evening showers and thunder potential. Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s in most locations. Temperatures rebound a bit for Friday, with some rising heights ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system. Friday is expected to mainly dry at this point. There is, however, some potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the MT/WY border in the afternoon/evening, as some monsoonal moisture becomes trapped beneath the ridge. Temperatures will climb back toward 90 degrees on Saturday, owing to a combination some ridge amplification ahead of digging upper level low in Alberta, and compressional warming ahead of a cold front. This front should bring some shower potential across the region by Saturday evening. Models have been consistent with this strong upper low crossing southern Canada, with best agreement in regard to breaking the streak of hot weather. At this point, we expect highs in the 70s in most locations for Sunday, with improving shower and thunderstorm potential. There has been some variability on how much precip can be expected in our area, but we will continue to watch this weather system closely to better assess what impacts to expect. Gilstad && .AVIATION... Wildfire smoke will continue to result in poor slant range visibility across the region. VFR conditions prevail across the region, and low level visibility has improved with northwest to northeast winds in most locations. KSHR still remains at MVFR, but northwest winds have started to increase, so expect to see improvement through the morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Gilstad && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 091 063/099 065/092 063/089 061/083 058/084 058/089 0/U 01/K 22/W 32/T 43/W 11/U 11/U LVM 094 055/096 056/090 054/086 051/082 048/083 050/088 0/K 01/K 24/T 54/T 53/T 11/U 11/U HDN 092 060/101 063/094 060/089 059/083 055/085 055/090 0/U 00/G 21/U 32/W 32/W 21/U 11/U MLS 092 060/099 068/096 064/090 063/084 056/083 058/088 0/U 00/K 21/U 32/T 33/T 11/U 11/U 4BQ 095 061/099 067/096 063/090 062/085 057/082 057/088 0/K 00/K 10/U 32/T 44/T 21/U 11/U BHK 091 057/094 064/096 062/087 061/083 053/080 054/085 1/K 10/K 10/U 33/T 44/T 21/U 11/U SHR 094 059/099 062/095 058/089 056/083 052/083 053/088 0/K 01/K 22/W 43/T 55/T 32/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings