498 FXUS62 KJAX 230616 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] The TAF period will begin with VFR conditions with occasional MVFR ceilings as a band of rain showers moves northward across the regional terminals through 10Z-12Z. Have tempo groups for rain showers and ceilings lowering to 2.5 kft for the coastal TAf sites with high end MVFR ceilings of 3.0 kft at the inland TAF sites. After 12Z, the showers lift northward of JAX terminals with a chance of thunderstorms will beginning near KSSI early in the day from 12Z-16Z with rain showers moving inland away from the Southeast Georgia coast, but this will increase chances for thunderstorms over KSSI with PROB30 group for storms between 16Z-20Z that could lead to MVFR visibilities and gusty wind up to 25 knots. Otherwise, VCTS is expected after 18Z for the regional terminals with easterly winds elevated near the coast 10-14 knots and lighter for the inland TAF sites with showers and storms dissipating completely across the region by 03Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION [731 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...Chance of isolated strong to severe storms will continue this evening through Sunday afternoon as strong vertical wind shear persists due to strong sw winds aloft. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place with high rain chances continuing...more numerous in the afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will be near average levels with southeasterly winds increasing on Sunday as high pressure builds to the north tightening the pressure gradient. .SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Tuesday Night]...Southeastly flow will prevail with low level ridge axis just north of the area. Mid-level ridge will build into the area from the east which will steer Tropical Storm Laura wnw into the Gulf fo Mexico. Vertical wind shear will decrease over the area as moisture remains high along with warming temperatures aloft. This will lower the severe potential to isolated pulse storms...with locally heavy rainfall threat remaining a threat. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be scattered near the east coast in the morning hours...becoming more numerous inland during the afternoon/evening. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...Mid-level ridge axis will be across the area Wednesday and Thursday with surface ridge just to the north. This will bring warming and drying conditions aloft with a decrease in rain chances. A southeasterly steering flow will result in scattered convection mainly over inland areas with highest coverage over western zones by late afternoon/evening. The ridge at surface and aloft will shift to the south of the area for Friday and Saturday. This will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity as the flow becomes southwesterly and moisture increases across the area. Temperatures will be slightly above average through the period. .MARINE...Deep layer subtropical ridge axis will remain to our north the next several days. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Laura to the se will move wnw into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Southeast winds will prevail the next several days over the local waters. Long period swells and stronger winds will produce increased wave heights the next several days. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible mainly offshore by Monday as combined seas reach 6 to 8 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 74 89 75 92 / 60 30 70 10 50 SSI 85 79 86 79 87 / 60 60 70 20 20 JAX 87 78 90 77 91 / 50 50 60 10 20 SGJ 87 80 88 79 89 / 30 60 70 10 20 GNV 88 76 91 76 93 / 50 40 70 10 50 OCF 89 76 91 76 93 / 50 30 70 20 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&