546 FXUS64 KOUN 201922 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Similar to yesterday overnight shower activity has persisted into early this afternoon, mainly across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. This activity will continue to diminish with dry conditions then expected over the area the rest of the day. Although the overall synoptic pattern changes little tonight compared to last night, the signal for another round of shower and isolated storms has diminished in the majority of the CAM solutions. Isentropic ascent appears weaker overnight than the previous two nights. Therefore, while a stray shower is possible over western Oklahoma tonight, most of the area should stay dry through tomorrow evening. Lows tonight will once again drop into the 60s, with highs tomorrow increasing a degree or two over today's values (generally upper 80s north to upper 90s far southwest). Ware && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Friday night / Saturday morning will be our last non-trivial chance of rain before the ridge builds back in keeping us drier and warmer. Models have pulled slightly further west with precipitation chances Friday night. The area is expected to see some weak warm air advection as a shortwave makes its way around the upper level high. These chances may linger into early Saturday morning, but at this point do not warrant mentionable PoPs beyond sunrise. After that, the ridge builds back in toward Kansas pushing any significant rain chances out and allowing temperatures to warm back to normal. Southeast Oklahoma (on the periphery of the tilted ridge) will be a place to watch for precipitation chances to creep back in mid to late next week, though at this time there is not enough confidence to include mentionable PoPs for any particular time period except toward the end of the forecast week. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 VFR conditions are expected through the period with light south- south east winds and scattered mid to high level clouds at times. A stray shower is possible over western Oklahoma overnight but chances are too low to include in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 10 10 Hobart OK 67 91 66 93 / 10 0 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 20 10 Gage OK 65 91 65 94 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 64 89 66 89 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 64 93 67 94 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...08