666 FXUS63 KICT 180435 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 The overall pattern includes a trough from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes region and into the Appalachian Mountains; there is the persistent dominating ridge across the western third of the CONUS which has led to record heat in locations across the Desert Southwest and heat advisories and warnings all the way into Washington, Idaho and Montana. Locally afternoon temperatures were near the seasonal normal range with values around 90 degrees. Minimal cloud cover allowed for full sunshine. Relative drier air in place allowed for heat indices and the feels like factor to not be too bad. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Highlights: 1) Temperatures near or below seasonal normal 2) Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms west of I-135 on Tuesday eve-night Challenges: Precipitation chances/coverage Tuesday eve-night Changes: 1) Adjusted pops, respective location and timing for Tuesday eve- night 2) Added slight chances in central KS Thursday eve-night The oppressive ridge maintains its hold over the western third of the CONUS for the first half of the week while trough stays in its position. There are waves associated with the trough as it circulates/slowly moves east. One of these is still expected to move through on Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but there is change in this feature in the upper levels compared to the past couple of days. Shorter term models (CAMs) suggest there could be some precipitation during this window. Both the GFS and NAM show precipitation as well after midnight into early Wednesday. The axis for better moisture transport stays off to the west (High Plains) where there is a surface low. Chances for precipitation have been adjusted including percentages, respective location and timing. It still looks like the general area will be west of I-135, but the coverage at specific times were modified. Confidence is low in the chances for precipitation. Continued northwest flow and similar spot in the overall pattern keep temperature moderation per se with highs staying in the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout. The GFS shows a short wave on Thursday- Friday. Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms have been added for Thursday eve-night for central Kansas given the latest blend of models. There are only slight chances which will probably be adjusted with future issuances as there is a little confidence in these chances. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Highlight: Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees The ridge that has brought oppressive/long lasting heat to the west will start to slightly weaken at the end of the week. A wave will overrun the top of its loss of amplification on Friday if you follow the ECMWF, and the ridge makes a slow eastward progression to the Central Plains during the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with the apparent temperatures calculated to be in a similar range. Overall it should be a pleasant weekend for anyone planning or seeking an outdoor adventure/venture. If not, maybe the forecast will prompt you to think about it at least. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A large ridge is currently in place across the western half of the country. Throughout the next 24 hours, a very gradual wind shift is expected from northeast back to the south during the day tomorrow. However, speeds will remain light. A few short term models do indicate perhaps a passing shower or thunderstorm in central Kansas during the evening/overnight tomorrow, but confidence in this remains low at this time. VFR flight conditions are expected throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 64 90 63 86 / 0 0 20 0 Hutchinson 61 89 62 85 / 0 0 20 0 Newton 62 88 62 85 / 0 0 10 0 ElDorado 61 88 62 84 / 0 0 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 63 87 62 84 / 0 0 10 10 Russell 62 89 64 86 / 10 10 20 10 Great Bend 61 88 63 84 / 10 10 20 0 Salina 62 88 63 87 / 0 10 10 0 McPherson 61 88 61 85 / 0 0 20 0 Coffeyville 62 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 61 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 61 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 62 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...TAV