769 
FXUS64 KTSA 170844
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to broken cirrus clouds...associated with the remnants 
of a decayed thunderstorm complex in Kansas and an exiting vort 
max over North/Central Texas...were common across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. Also to the north...was
a secondary surface boundary currently moving into Northern
Kansas. This boundary and an associated upper level trof axis will
be the reinforcing shot of some cooler and drier conditions for
much of the week ahead. 

For today...ahead of the approaching surface boundary...some
pooling of the available moisture could allow for dewpoints to 
get into the lower 70s across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and also
along the boundary as it enters Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
In response...there is a non-zero potential of a stray shower and
or thunderstorm this afternoon before the surface boundary clears
the CWA this evening. The greater potential may be in Southeast
Oklahoma...though with uncertainty of coverage and storm
initiation will keep pops just below mentionable criteria and 
monitor conditions through the day. Any development that may 
occur should weaken this evening with the loss of daytime 
heating.

Behind yesterday's cold front...afternoon temps today look to
again warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s over the CWA. There
may be a few locations that could be a degree or so warmer
compared to yesterday north of Interstate 40...ahead of the 
approaching surface boundary. Overall...these conditions should 
keep afternoon heat index values finally below advisory conditions
for Southeast Oklahoma.

Surface boundary is progged to exit this evening with the
associated upper level trof axis pushing through overnight 
tonight. In the wake of these departing features...continued 
slightly cooler and drier conditions are forecast for the CWA 
through much of the week...as upper level northerly flow remains 
common over the Plains with the ridge of high pressure over the 
Western CONUS. Will continue with a dry forecast and highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 degrees for the week. By late week into the 
weekend...southerly low level flow looks to return to the region 
as the ridge of high pressure tries to expand back into the 
Plains. In response...a warming trend could be possible next 
weekend. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  66  89  63 /  10   0   0   0 
FSM   92  68  90  64 /  10   0   0   0 
MLC   91  69  89  63 /  10   0   0   0 
BVO   91  64  87  60 /  10   0   0   0 
FYV   89  62  85  57 /  10   0   0   0 
BYV   90  64  86  59 /  10   0   0   0 
MKO   91  67  87  63 /  10   0   0   0 
MIO   89  63  87  60 /  10   0   0   0 
F10   91  67  88  62 /  10   0   0   0 
HHW   92  72  92  66 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20