653 FXUS64 KMOB 170443 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z issuance...VFR conditions were present at issuance and will persist through Monday evening. The earlier showers and storms that affected southeast Mississippi have since moved further south over Louisiana. Fair weather is expected for the rest of tonight. However, isolated to scattered shower and storm chances will be possible once again Monday morning through the afternoon. This is particularly true for areas generally along and southeast of I-65. At this time, mentioned VCSH for all TAF sites due to uncertainty in exact timing of showers/storms. Shower and storm activity will then diminish through Monday evening. Outside of any storms, northerly winds will be light tonight, but increase to be 10 knots or less through Monday afternoon. Some areas along the coast, especially the western Florida Panhandle, could see southerly winds in the afternoon due to the development of sea breeze. Winds will then decrease to be light once again through the evening. /26 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1044 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday Night/...The upper level trough currently over the Ohio Valley and northeastern CONUS and extending down over the Appalachians and Carolina coastline will amplify southwest over the northern Gulf coast through Monday night. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over Nevada, Arizona, and Utah will retreat back west. At the surface, the cold front that passed over the region today has stalled over the coast. Another cold front will make its way over the southeastern CONUS tonight and stall along the coast through Monday evening. This advancing cold front will bring increased deep layer moisture into the local area, resulting in PWATs between 1.6-1.9 inches on Monday. Although, some areas along and southeast of I-65 could see PWATs around 2 inches. As for sensible weather, the showers and storms that affected southeast Mississippi earlier this evening have since moved offshore. Some light showers are all that remain over our southeast Mississippi counties late this evening. Expecting a fairly quiet night in regards to weather for the rest of tonight. Although, shower and storm chances will increase into Monday morning due to the influx of moisture with the approaching second cold front. At this time, have slight PoPs Monday morning increasing to chance PoPs for the afternoon. The better instability will be generally along and southeast of I-65, where model MLCAPE values range from 1500-2000 J/kg. This is also where the better deep layer moisture will occur. Therefore, most of the shower/storm activity is anticipated to be along and southeast of I-65 on Monday. Then, with the loss of daytime heating, showers and storms will diminish through Monday evening. Also, drier air will filter in behind the cold front from the northwest, causing PWATs over the northwest portion of the area to nose dive to around 1.1-1.2 inches late Monday into early Tuesday. Thus, mainly dry conditions will follow for Monday night, but some isolated showers/storms are possible over the open Gulf waters late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as the surface front stalls over the coast. Current temperatures across the area are generally in the mid to upper 70s; although, some areas along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle are in the lower 80s. Low temperatures tonight are still on track to be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. High temperatures Monday will be a touch cooler than today due to some cloud cover and higher rain chances, but highs in the lower to mid 90s are anticipated area- wide. Lows Monday night will then be in the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. Lastly, a LOW RISK of rip currents continues for the southwest Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through at least Monday night. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob