382 FXUS63 KOAX 162341 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 641 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Near term... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening along a weak cold front moving south through the area late this afternoon into the evening evening. Some of these will be capable of large hail/damaging wind. Synopsis... The region remains in persistent northwesterly flow aloft with a strong ridge of high pressure to our west and persistent troughing to our east. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over central Missouri with southerly low-level return flow extending across central/western KS and Neb. Within this low- level return flow resides a moist airmass with 850mb dewpoints near 14-15C in central Nebraska contributing to an increase in instability to our west and more specifically, across northeastern Nebraska nearest to the surface front where a narrow axis of 65-70F surface dewpoints have pooled. Tonight... Model solutions continue to show scattered convection developing near the frontal boundary by mid-afternoon and continuing south through eastern Neb/southwestern Iowa in broken clusters along the instability axis with RAP effective bulk shear values of 35-40kts. Storms may be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds but cannot rule out an brief isolated tornado. Convection should be fairly progressive and south of the forecast area by 04-06z tonight. Monday and beyond... Surface high pressure will build overhead Monday with highs forecast in the mid to upper 80s. A weak disturbance moves overhead Tuesday night when we have our next chance of light precipitation. A few other subtle disturbances are forecast to move through northwesterly flow aloft and could spark additional showers/thunderstorms later on Thursday into Friday. Overall temperatures will be in the upper 80s with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Scattered thunderstorms will continue for the first hour of the TAF cycle, otherwise VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected through Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...Kern