405 FXUS62 KTAE 151745 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 145 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18z Sunday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A brief period of MVFR conditions may occur for a few hours late tonight around DHN and VLD, followed by VFR conditions again during the day on Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [846 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... An upper level shortwave trough that is currently over the western Tennessee valley and Mississippi is expected to propagate eastward through the morning hours today, and end up over northern Georgia by tonight. With PW values well over 2 inches across much of the region, shower and thunderstorms are expected to become widespread through the area by late morning given the upper level support for ascent from the aforementioned trough. Current CAM guidance develops widespread shower and thunderstorms over the coastal waters and along the coastal regions through the early morning to late morning hours. As inland regions heat up through the late morning and early afternoon, thunderstorm activity is expected to expand in coverage through the entire region. This activity is expected to slowly spread eastward and northward throughout the late afternoon and early evening hours following the area of greatest upper level support from the previously discussed upper level trough. Overall the main threat will be localized flooding as some training of thunderstorms is possible throughout the day today. Widespread rainfall is expected to remain below 1 inch; however, some locally heavier amounts will be possible given the PW values of over 2 inches over the region. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s through the afternoon, and lows will fall into the low to mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... The shortwave responsible for forcing a frontal system into the eastern CONUS will be lifting through the Northeast by Sunday morning. During the day, another shortwave will dig through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. These features and their movement will result in the de-amplification of the trough and removal of deep-layer synoptic forcing across the Tri-State region. The surface front will be left in place, bisecting the local area on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms expected across south-central Georgia and the eastern Big Bend of Florida. While the front will remain mostly stationary across the region through Monday, drier air will slip in overhead resulting in much less coverage of storms on Monday. Expect highs in the low to middle 90s with heat indices between 100-105. .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... On Tuesday, another shortwave will dive deeper into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, resulting in the re-amplification of the eastern CONUS trough and the arrival of another surface front to the local area. The newly amplified pattern will allow yet another wave to dive well into the Deep South by mid-week, lingering along the Gulf coast through the remainder of the week before lifting back into the Southeast at the start of the weekend. The combination of deep-layer forcing and a mostly stationary surface boundary will result in a return to a wetter than normal pattern across the Tri-State region. Subsequently, high temperatures will be kept in check and struggle to reach 90 degrees, with several muggy nights with lows in the middle 70s. .MARINE... Generally, WSW winds will prevail over the next several days. Expect winds and seas to remain below headline levels, though brief upticks to near Cautionary conditions will be possible near the coast in the afternoons. Showers and storms are expected to be widespread across the northeast Gulf, especially during the overnight hours. The possible exception will be Monday when we get a brief break from storms between frontal systems. .FIRE WEATHER... Besides low dispersions expected over the next couple days, a wetter than average pattern expected over the next week will lead to non- existent hazardous fire weather conditions through this period. .HYDROLOGY... Today is forecast to be the wettest day of the next few, with widespread rain amounts of a quarter to a half inch expected. There will certainly be isolated higher rain accumulations, but will be much more isolated in nature. Expect these higher totals to be on the order of 1-2", possibly a little higher close to the Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Beginning Tuesday of next week, higher than usual rain chances will return to the forecast, with a prolonged period of wet weather expected through the remainder of the week. Widespread average rain amounts from Tuesday into next weekend are expected to be around 1-2" with isolated higher amounts up to double those values. Provided the isolated higher amounts do not impact any of our flashier basins or urban areas, river or flash flooding is not anticipated at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 94 73 95 73 / 20 20 0 30 10 Panama City 77 91 77 93 77 / 30 10 0 20 10 Dothan 72 94 72 93 72 / 20 0 0 20 10 Albany 73 93 73 94 73 / 30 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 72 91 73 93 72 / 20 20 0 30 10 Cross City 75 91 75 92 73 / 50 50 20 30 20 Apalachicola 76 91 78 91 77 / 50 30 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Harrigan FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Harrigan