760 
FXUS63 KOAX 122027
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Isolated showers continue to move across portions of the forecast 
area in wake of decaying Kansas MCV. This system has brought 
increasing cloudiness across much of the forecast area today with 
clouds and a few showers expected to linger into the evening. Of 
note on satellite imagery is a smoke plume from Colorado fires 
that has made its way into portions of western Nebraska. HRRR- 
smoke plumes do bring this high-level smoke plume into portions of
southeastern Nebraska this evening for a potential photogenic 
sunset opportunity if clouds can continue to clear. 

Meanwhile, an upper level high will remain over the desert southwest 
allowing continued mid-level westerly flow over our forecast area
to send pieces of shortwave energy through the region through the
weekend. Overnight convection expected across central Kansas may 
extend into southeastern Nebraska by Thursday morning which model 
solutions have been all over the place as of late. 12Z ECMWF and 
most CAMs have hinted at lesser chances of tstms and have trended 
the forecast as such. It is hard to rule out any small chance of
overnight convection in this pattern.

A similar set-up takes place on Thursday night with lingering High 
Plains overnight convection potentially spreading into the forecast 
area Friday morning. A better chance for organized convection is 
possible Friday night into Saturday morning as a more robust 
shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains driving a 
surface cold-front south into the area and into a moderately 
unstable environment.

Somewhat cooler surface high pressure slides overhead early next
week with predominately northwesterly flow aloft with upper-level
high pressure anchored over the western states to maintain a
hot/dry airmass in that area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow. Winds out of the
south could gust up to 25 knots today. Some thunderstorms may be
possible early Thursday morning however confidence is quite low at
this time, so have left out of the TAF for now. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...HB