081 FXUS63 KILX 121738 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail across much of central Illinois today. The exception will be south of the I-70 corridor where clouds and a few showers will be noted. Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Skies are mostly clear across the CWA, except in the southeast closer to the front. The southeast is also the area that could still see some scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Have made some minor adjustments to location of pops and to sky cover for the next few hours; otherwise forecast remains the same. However, will be sending update shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An upper low evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over the Ozarks will meander slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, spreading clouds and scattered showers/thunder across southern Illinois. Latest radar imagery shows a few showers approaching the far southern KILX CWA around Flora and Olney and these should spread further north toward I-70 as the morning progresses. The showers will eventually encounter a drier airmass further north and will dissipate. Based on model consensus, have included low chance PoPs south of a Taylorville to Casey line today. Elsewhere around central Illinois, dry conditions will be the rule with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. A few showers will linger south of I-70 this evening, but will then dissipate and/or shift further southeast overnight as the upper low pivots into western Kentucky. Given light winds and the continued moist boundary layer across the southern CWA, patchy fog will develop along/south of a Springfield to Paris line toward dawn. Overnight lows will range from around 60 degrees far north at Lacon...to the upper 60s far south near Flora. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 A weak surface ridge will hold firm from the Great Lakes into central Illinois for both Thursday and Friday...leading to generally dry conditions. The exception will be the far E/SE CWA where clouds and a few showers/thunder will be possible as the upper low slowly tracks eastward into Kentucky/southern Indiana. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals in the middle 80s. After that, a northern-stream short-wave trough will drop out of Canada, pushing a cold front into the region over the upcoming weekend. There is still some model disagreement concerning the exact timing of the front, with the GFS featuring two separate fronts passing through Illinois. At this time, will maintain highest PoPs on Sunday as per the GFS...but these could be lowered or even removed in future forecast packages in favor of PoPs on Saturday as per the ECMWF/GEM. Once the front passes, and deep- layer northwesterly flow takes hold, temperatures will drop below normal for early next week...with readings only in the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. SPI/DEC/CMI could see some scattered CU this afternoon...based on satellite loops showing clouds near each sites, but mainly across southern IL. PIA and BMI should remain mostly clear this afternoon through tonight. All other sites should become clear this evening as well. Then expecting CU around 2.5kft to develop at all sites tomorrow morning due to the boundary being situated over central IL. Will have just FEW CU for now...but things could become broken by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be easterly through the period with speeds less than 10kts at all sites, but light and variable during the night. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten