888 FXUS63 KFGF 121730 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Only a few showers remain in the southeastern portions of the forecast area near Wadena. Much of the western portions of the area are now clear, with a weak wave working across central ND this afternoon. We could see scattered convection along this wave later this afternoon; however, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the evening and early overnight hours. UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Light showers continue working across the southeastern portions of the CWA with mid to high clouds across a good portion of the region. Temperatures remain on track and are generally in the 70s. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Remnants of MCS that moves across northern SD overnight is now bringing rain/isold thunder to the southern Red River Valley into west central MN. Strongest storms are well south and east of Elbow Lake. Expect this activity to move out of area by mid-morning. Current forecast reflects this and no changes planned to ongoing forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 An MCS moving across northern South Dakota should bring some convective activity to the far southern valley this morning, as well as portions of west central Minnesota. The strongest cells are expected to be south of the state line. Southeast winds pick up by noontime, and dewpoints should rise into the 60s by mid-day and into the lower 70s across eastern North Dakota by this afternoon. Meanwhile, H700 temps will increase across central and eastern North Dakota, creating a capping environment as a cold front moves into the far western part of the state. This next frontal boundary looks to enter the Devils Lake area Thursday morning. With the front being well to the west today and tonight, the best instability will be across the west and up into Manitoba, where the H700 temps are not as robust. Think the majority of the day should be quiet however some isolated storms are certainly possible (especially west of the Red River Valley) with the increasing moisture. Better chance for scattered severe comes on Thursday as the front begins to work its way across the CWA. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 80s and with the increasing moisture a humid day can be expected...with another warm and muggy day on Thursday ahead of the front. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Thursday night through Friday...The pattern continues to be fairly active Thursday night with southwesterly flow aloft and a frontal boundary stalling over the CWA. Thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday evening, with very high CAPE values and sufficient deep layer shear for some of the storms to become severe. There will be a bit of a break but then by Friday, a shortwave rotating around the base of the upper trough will be coming through, bringing another surface trough axis and front moving into the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop, and with high instability and shear, there will be potential for strong to severe storms to develop along the front. Several of the deterministic models show some heavy rain amounts, and the GEFS climatology have fairly high probabilistic values for both humidity and precipitation amounts. Will have to keep an eye out for heavy rain impacts as the period gets closer. Saturday through Tuesday...The main upper trough moves off to the east, with northwesterly flow aloft for the weekend into early next week. There will be a reinforcing shortwave coming through Saturday, bringing some shower activity behind the departing cold front. Some additional weak shortwaves coming through will be possible later on, but not resolvable at this point so will keep POPs fairly minimal from Sunday onward. The northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure will also keep temperatures on the cooler side of seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VFR conditions prevail today and tonight with southerly to southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 knots. For tonight, winds will taper off through sunrise Thursday, then pick back up during the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in western and central ND this afternoon and work eastward through the evening and early overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially west of the Red River; however, coverage will be isolated at best, and confidence in VCTS remains low at all sites. MVFR or brief IFR conditions are possible at KBJI and KTVF Thursday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Lynch SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...JR AVIATION...Lynch