468 
FXUS61 KBTV 121115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Today starts a period of dry weather with large ridge of
Canadian high pressure ridging into our area. The next chance 
of significant rainfall occurs on Monday and Tuesday of next 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface cold front exits east 
of New England today, then ridge of surface high pressure 
begins to build down over our region out of Canada. The weather 
will be very quiet through Thursday with temperatures running a 
few degrees above seasonal normals each period. Skies will be 
clear to partly cloudy through the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Wednesday...Mid-level ridging will begin to 
move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday night resulting in 
a pleasant end of the week. The associated surface high pressure
will be situated across Quebec, Canada during this time, 
producing clear skies across northern areas. Elsewhere, mostly 
clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected. Overnight lows 
Thursday night into Friday will be in the 50s with Friday 
afternoon highs reaching low 80s. Overall, dry weather is 
expected, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be 
ruled out across southern Rutland and Windsor counties Friday 
afternoon and evening. During which time, embedded shortwave 
energy within the departing upper level low will pass across 
southern New England, increasing mid-level lapse rates. Paired 
with daytime heating, modest instability (CAPE 500-1000J/kg) may
prove to be enough for few terrain driven showers/thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry, pleasant weather will 
continue over much of the weekend with high temperatures in the 
upper 70s/low 80s on Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s. 
Winds will increase Sunday to 5-10mph out of the southeast as 
surface high pressure departs eastward off the coast of New 
England, while low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. 
Depending on the track of the departing mid-level ridge (of 
which the 00z GFS and ECMWF greatly differ), temperatures may 
creep back towards mid/upper 80s for Sunday under warm air 
advection. In addition, there exists a chance of rain beginning 
late Sunday night, spreading from west to east with the approach
of a frontal system. At this time, the best chances for 
widespread rain look to be Monday afternoon and evening. Chances
of terrain driven showers will continue through Tuesday, though
model guidances suggests a drier pattern for mid-week. 
Temperatures during the start of next week will be a bit cooler 
than late, with highs in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Only SLK was impacted by low stratus
overnight, that site remains IFR at this time and should improve
by about 14z. VFR will then prevail on west/northwest winds of 
5 to 15 knots at all sites. Some BR development is anticipated
overnight with high pressure ridging into the area. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Neiles