143 FXUS63 KGRB 102155 AAA AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Green Bay WI 455 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 New Information added to update section .UPDATE... Issued at 451 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Looking to chip away at the NW portion of the Watch in our area. Admittedly, the risk of SVR in Outagamie and Winnebago has diminished greatly. But would like to see winds turn a little more NW and have Tds drop a little more (though can't really use the ATW Td). The risk in Brown/Calument isn't great either, but given the development SWWD down the bay there is some possibility development could still occur in Brown. MKX radar also occasinally showing weak returns over Brown, as well. So Brown and Calument will need to stay in the Watch a little longer. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Scattered thunderstorms ending by early evening, then sunny and much less humid by tomorrow. Above normal temperatures continuing into the upcoming weekend. Throughout the forecast period, the subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the central and southern CONUS while a seasonably strong band of westerlies persists across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The westerlies will gradually gain a little amplitude and become slowly progressive during the middle to latter part of the period. Temperatures should remain slightly to modestly above normal throughout most of the period, then drop back late. Discounting any heavy rainfall from convection late this afternoon, precipitation will be likely be AOB normal for the period. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Convection has been slow to organize across the area, But with gradual recovery from the morning storms continuing, and shear increasing, severe storms will be possible in the east until the front clears the area late this afternoon or early this evening. We are also monitoring for the possibility that the storms moving over the northern Bay of Green Bay will result in a wave of water propagating down the bay. The ideal situation for that to happen would be if the storms were moving faster, but given the high lake/bay levels it doesn't take much displacement of water to result in flooding of low areas near the shoreline. Quiet weather is expected overnight and Tuesday as a weak anticyclone slowly shifts into the region. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The quiet weather will persist well into the long-term portion of the forecast. Overall, saw no reason to deviate significantly from the standard forecast initialization grids generated from a broad-based blend of guidance products. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 A cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be in east-central Wisconsin, so carried in the TAFs there. Skies will clear in the wake of the front. Some fog is possible late tonight, especially in central Wisconsin. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........Skowronski SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....Skowronski LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Skowronski