673 FXUS65 KABQ 101725 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1125 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. More high-based showers may produce strong/erratic wind gusts at KROW this pm/eve and possibly KTCC. It A weak backdoor front will result in a wind shift at KTCC and KLVS between 03Z and 06Z. It no longer looks like the front will reach the RGV. Overall, winds will be light through 18Z Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION...240 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020... .SYNOPSIS... With an area of high pressure building over southern New Mexico, today will mark the beginning of a mostly dry and hot week. A weak front moving into the eastern plains may help generate a few storms today and again Tuesday. Storm chances continue to dwindle Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures rise. Highs will be well above normal, and several locations across central and eastern New Mexico will be in jeopardy of breaking daily high temperature records. Storm chances may return to portions of the east by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Warming will continue today and Tuesday as the upper high moves west to near the bootheel and dry westerlies prevail across much of our area. High temperatures will be well above normal and near daily record values at several central and eastern New Mexico locales, including Albuquerque and Santa Fe. The downtrend in convection will continue as well, although a few storms may produce strong/erratic wind gusts across eastern portions of the area today, then again Tuesday following a bump in moisture from a weak/shallow backdoor front. Roswell temperature trivia: KROW hit a high of 100 degrees yesterday and is forecast to hit 102 today, which will be the 5th day in a row with a high of 100 or greater. Add on another 5 days forecast at 100 or greater...taking the streak to 10 consecutive days, which ties as the 6th longest 100 degree day streak on record there and matches the 10 day streak from July. Although, we're not anticipating the 110+ heat from July. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... Hot and dry will be the story Wednesday and Thursday as the H5 high builds to about 595dm over southern NM. Dry, westerly flow will allow PWATs to fall to near to less than 0.5" across most of the area. As storm chances will be limited, temperatures will climb to well above normal values. Triple digit heat is likely across east central and southeast NM. The forecast high of 105 on Wed and 106 on Thu in Roswell may mean that a Heat Advisory will be needed for Chaves County. Several daily record high temperatures will be in jeopardy Wed & Thu for many locales across central and eastern NM, including ROW, TCC, and even ABQ. The high shifts near the NM/AZ border by Friday and farther west into central AZ by Saturday. This is about a day faster than what was previously advertised. While the GFS and Canadian were hopeful in trying to seep moisture into the state underneath the high by Friday, the latest 00Z runs have trended towards the much drier ECMWF's solution. As a result, did trim PoPs back on Friday. Operational models are in good agreement with keeping the high over AZ through at least the middle of next week, but all hope is not lost yet. A backdoor front looks to move into northeast NM by Saturday. This brings a modest increase in low-level moisture and storm chances primarily to northeast NM by this weekend. 11/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... A drying/warming trend will continue through mid week with a hot, dry and unstable atmosphere overtaking most of the area. Although storms are possible across eastern portions of the area today and Tuesday, they will be associated with very low chances for wetting rain. After a hot and unusually dry early to mid week, storms will come back to the forecast toward the end of the week but will still be associated with low chances for wetting rain. Good chances for wetting rain will hold-off until the upper high centers further west over Arizona this weekend into early next week, allowing moisture to surge west behind a backdoor front. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$