070 
FXUS64 KAMA 101139 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, another round of showers and thunderstorms is 
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening. The greatest
likelihood appears to be at KGUY and KAMA, with PROB30 groups 
inserted for this time period at those two sites. Expect the threat
of precipitation to diminish late this evening. A weak cold front
is also forecast to slowly move southward across the OK Panhandle
and northern TX Panhandle later this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise,
outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are anticipated.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
For today and tonight, a weak cold front will slide slowly south
and settle across the northern Texas Panhandle. A broad upper
level ridge of high pressure will also prevail. In addition, a
minor upper level shortwave trof will traverse the north side of 
this ridge and assist in thunderstorm development over the higher
terrain of eastern CO and eastern NM later this afternoon. Strong
daytime heating assisted by some convergence along the approaching
frontal boundary and adequate moisture should result in the
formation of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across
the area. While shear profiles are fairly weak, a few storms may
become strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary hazard
given inverted V progged soundings, followed by large hail.
Highest pops were placed across the northeast zones with lowest
values in the far southeast TX Panhandle. 

Tuesday and Tuesday night offers the potential for another round
of showers and thunderstorms before drier weather returns. The 
upper level ridge axis remains suppressed to the south and southwest
of the forecast area, with another minor upper level shortwave 
trof progged to track east across the central and southern high 
plains on the north side of the ridge. Although the capping 
inversion may be a bit stronger later Tuesday, it still appears 
the threat for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms exists 
across the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening, with slight 
chc pops incorporated into the grids. 

The upper level ridge of high pressure is then forecast to edge
closer to the region Wednesday and Thursday with a corresponding
increase in heights and low level thickness values along with a
strengthening mid level capping inversion. This suggests the 
return of max temps over 100 degrees for at least parts of the 
area Wednesday through Friday, with Heat Advisories possibly 
becoming warranted during this time period.

Medium range models suggest the upper level ridge of high pressure 
will retrograde to the southwest states Friday night through the 
end of the extended periods, with northwest flow aloft resuming 
and the return of the threat for showers and thunderstorms across 
at least parts of the OK and TX Panhandles. NBM pops for Friday 
night through Monday night are plausible and were utilized in the 
grids.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$