630 FXUS64 KBRO 100544 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1244 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Mid-level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern, leading to mainly dry conditions across Deep South Texas. Near-surface moisture will allow scattered clouds to develop and perhaps an isolate seabreeze shower today. However, VFR conditions should prevail through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 708 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Visible satellite imagery continues to show pockets of low to mid-level fair weather cumulus with cirrus moving in from the south across Deep South Texas this evening. VFR conditions will continue to prevail over the next 24 hours, with moderate southeast breezes diminishing for the overnight hours and then picking up again in the morning. A brief shower or two may be possible tomorrow with the sea-breeze, but chances remain low at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): 500 mb ridging will continue to dominate across the state through the short term period while an inverted trough/tropical wave to the south across the western Bay of Campeche advances westward into inland Mexico. A stray shower could be possible through the rest of this afternoon, otherwise anticipate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with a mix of some low to mid- level cumulus and occasional passing high level clouds arching north from the tropical wave to the south. Expect a warm and muggy night with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. A few showers will be possible overnight offshore. Monday compared to today looks to host a slightly better opportunity for a couple of sea breeze showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, as a result of a very subtle uptick in the moisture. Additionally, some isolated activity will exist offshore as well. Temperatures will run around climatological average on Monday with areas climbing above 100 degrees out west. The afternoon heat indices across the region are expected to peak slightly higher with values between 103 and 108 degrees Fahrenheit. Any sea breeze activity will come to an end by Monday evening and will lead to fair night featuring warm and muggy conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): A midlevel broad ridge will continue to be the dominating synoptic feature for the forecast period. As this ridge expands through midweek subsidence should suppress moisture in the area, though a stray sea breeze shower or thunderstorms can not be completely ruled out. Moisture charts show mean RH at the 850-300mb layer ranging from 30-45 percent Wed-Friday which is not conducive for deep convection or even sustained sea breeze activity. The aforementioned high pressure is still indicated to retrograde westward introducing a marginal surface weakness moving into the Western Gulf next weekend. This may lead to deeper moisture and a slight increase PoPs, especially along coastal counties, but current models are trending downward for this activity. Temperatures will continue to be near or just above normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 90s in the RGV to the low 100s west and heat indices of 105 to 110 across the CWA. Temperatures may even increase a few more degrees midweek as the ridge continues to expand and strengthen. MARINE: (Now Through Monday night): Marine conditions will remain fair through Monday night as a broad area of surface high pressure continues to stretch across the Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate onshore winds and low to moderate seas will continue to trend. The opportunity for isolated showers and/or thunderstorms will exist offshore, especially from Monday into Monday night. (Tuesday through Sunday)...High pressure in the northern Gulf will continue to produce southeasterly light to moderate southeasterly winds to Deep South Texas through the forecast period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out each day possibly building seas and briefly increasing winds. Otherwise, favorable marine conditions will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 80 93 80 / 10 10 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 95 79 94 81 / 20 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 97 78 96 79 / 20 10 20 0 MCALLEN 99 79 97 79 / 10 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 82 88 83 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Aviation...65-CB