300 FXUS64 KMEG 092057 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 357 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 .DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge continues to dominate the region. The ridge has squandered any rain chances through today and has kept us dry across the Mid-South. Only few clouds are observed on GOES-16 satellite imagery with a mid-level minor shortwave trough situated over southern IL and southwestern KY. A surface ridge over southern CONUS is bringing in southwesterly flow and a seasonably warm airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the region. Heat index values have reached into the low 100s but have remained below the 105 degree threshold needed for an advisory. The upper-level high will remain over the south with the leading edge situated over the northeastern Mid-South. As the weak shortwave rides along the edge of the ridge, it'll dive southeast into central and western TN; this will allow the chance for isolated showers and storms to develop over the far northeastern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA) overnight. Another weak shortwave will clip northwestern TN and move into central TN which may be enough for diurnally driven showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon over areas east of Jackson, TN. Temperatures will top out into the mid-to-upper 90s with dew points in the 70s. A heat advisory has been issued for most of the Mid-South for tomorrow afternoon with Heat indices expected to be between 105-110 across most of the region. On Tuesday, the ridge that has been influencing the area will break down. Additionally, an upper-level trough will develop over eastern KS and slowly push east into northern AR as well as northern TN. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours and into Wednesday night. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible as the trough exists the region. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs with lows in the 70s. Slightly cooler but seasonable air will move in midweek as rain chances continue through the week. A boundary will park just to the north of the Mid-South with a blocking high over eastern CONUS. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s with lows in the low-to-mid 70s. KRF && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. A few isolated showers are possible during the period but coverage will be too limited to mention in TAFs. Winds will be mainly from the southwest this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots before diminishing to around 5 knots tonight. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS- Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS- Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for Carroll-Chester- Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby- Tipton-Weakley. && $$