781 FXUS63 KIND 081844 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 244 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper air disturbance is expected to move through southern Indiana during the day Sunday. A cold front is expected to affect the area around Monday night into Tuesday. This front may linger over the area for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A remnant MCV currently over Missouri is progged by short term model data to drift into southern Illinois tonight. Some of the finer scale models blow up quite a bit of convection off to the west/southwest of the local area with this feature later tonight, with the fringes possibly reaching the southwest zones towards sunrise Sunday. Convective parameters not very favorable locally for much to happen tonight, so the better convective threat may remain off to the southwest. Will bring in some small chance PoPs towards sunrise Sunday over the far southwest zones to cover this feature, but keep the majority of the forecast area dry. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS guidance lows tonight look reasonable, so any adjustments will be minor. && .SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The remnant MCV is expected to drift through southern Indiana on Sunday. Questions remain as to the amount of convection that may be associated with this feature locally, as convective parameters continue to look rather weak. Will keep some chance PoPs over the southern/southwestern zones on Sunday, due to the presence of the mid level feature. Convective potential looks to increase Sunday night and on through the rest of the short term, as an area of enhanced flow at 850mb moves into the area Sunday night, and a cold front sags into the area by Monday night or Tuesday. At this point, operational and ensemble data suggest the best precipitation potential will be Monday night into Tuesday, but any preceding outflows may change that as time goes by. Air mass may become highly unstable by Monday afternoon, with models suggesting potential for Lifted Index values below -10 and CAPE above 4000, which may result in strong organized convection. Deep layer shear looks rather weak, though. Lower confidence in high temperature forecast on Sunday, due to questions revolving around amount of cloud cover tomorrow. Will go with the GFS MOS highs for now, but highs may be too warm if cloud cover is more widespread than currently expected. Progged low level thicknesses suggest the guidance highs look too cool on Monday. Will raise the highs a category in that period. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An active weather pattern will persist throughout the extended with periodic threats for scattered convection as waves aloft drift through the quasi-zonal flow and interact with a frontal boundary oscillating back and forth across the Ohio Valley. While no day is expected to be a washout...the presence of the boundary nearby with a steady slate of waves and energy aloft will result in a daily threat for scattered storms into the weekend with a moist and unstable airmass over central Indiana. Drier air over the Great Lakes later in the week will try to advect south into the area but confidence is not high in that occurring to any great degree. Have much greater confidence at this point in the more stagnant pattern discussed above lingering. Expect warm and humid conditions through the weekend with near normal temperatures. Highs will be generally in the mid and upper 80s with lows from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 081800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 VFR conditions will continue throughout the forecast period. Mostly sunny skies continue early this afternoon with high pressure centered just east of the region. Could see a bit of cu formation through the afternoon...most likely at KBMG and KIND...but overall subsidence through the column will limit clouds in general. Any cu will diminish this evening with mainly clear skies overnight. Clouds will increase Sunday morning as any convective cloud debris from storms to the west of the area are likely to drift into central Indiana. Southerly winds today will become light and variable tonight before developing again Sunday. Any convection is not likely to impact the terminals until later on Sunday afternoon at the earliest. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...Ryan