948 FXUS63 KIND 080324 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1124 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Quiet weather is expected for tonight with patchy fog after midnight. Fog may be briefly dense. The surface high pressure that has been in place for much of the week will begin to break down tomorrow ahead of an upper level system that will bring rain to the area late this weekend into early next week. Best chances for rain currently looks to be next Monday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for much of the rest of the week as a surface front remains nearly stationary across the area. && .NEAR TERM (Rest of Tonight)... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Forecast is in good shape. Made tweaks to hourly forecasts, but no significant changes made. Patchy fog still looks possible overnight. Previous discussion follows.... Dry weather is expected for tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to slowly break down. Much like the last few nights, fog looks possible across the area with light winds and clear skies. Conditions look more favorable for fog tonight which will allow fog to be more widespread and possibly briefly dense. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight with winds light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 309 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Dry conditions are expected to continue into the day Saturday with temperatures warming up to near normal. A few areas of afternoon cumulus look likely. Dry conditions will likely continue into the overnight hours, but model guidance continues to show an overnight MCS that currently looks to stay to the west of the forecast area. Will keep low POPs through the night to account for any uncertainty in the track of the storms. Diurnally driven convection looks possible Sunday and again Monday with another possible MCS Sunday night. This system currently looks to stay north of the forecast area, but remains fairly uncertain. Will cap POPs no higher than 54 to account for the uncertainty in coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs will reach into the mid to upper 80s Saturday, followed by the upper 80s and lower 90s on Sunday and Monday. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s Saturday night and then only into the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Much of the extended will remain active with periodic threats for scattered convection as waves aloft drift through the zonal flow and interact with a frontal boundary oscillating across the Ohio Valley. The primary threat for more numerous convection comes Monday night as a frontal boundary drifts into the forecast area. The front will drift south to near the Ohio River before meandering across the region through the rest of the work week. While no day is expected to be a washout...the presence of the boundary with a persistent stream of waves aloft will result in a daily threat for scattered storms with a moist and unstable airmass over central Indiana. Expect a return to near normal temperatures through the period with highs in the mid and upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There will be a noticeable increase in the humidity throughout the extended as well. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 080600Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1124 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Outside of the possibility of some fog near sunrise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Passing cirrus will be around tonight, then cumulus will develop Saturday morning. Patchy fog will be around near sunrise, and this would affect mainly the outlying sites. Kept the 6SM in the TAF with a patches of fog mention. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...White NEAR TERM...White/50 SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...50